Justin Herbert is making a case for MVP consideration: How QB has ascended to another level for 2-0 Chargers

The last three NFL MVPs have been won by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, and there’s a chance one of the “Big Three” can win the NFL’s top individual award this upcoming year as well. However, through two weeks of the 2025 NFL season, one player has emerged from sleeper to favorite.

Justin Herbert has the Los Angeles Chargers at 2-0, and in first place in the new-look AFC West. He upset the Kansas City Chiefs in Brazil in Week 1, and then dominated Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders on their home field in Week 2. Without a doubt, Herbert is off to the best start of his career. As it stands now, Allen and Jackson are the favorites to win NFL MVP over at FanDuel Sportsbook, listed at +350. Behind them are Herbert and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love at +850. 

Herbert is one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in today’s NFL. Some view him as an underrated signal-caller that possesses absurd arm talent, yet was affected by the historically bad Brandon Staley defense that made life tougher on him. Others view Herbert as an overhyped quarterback that can’t win the big game.

It’s only been two weeks, but Herbert looks poised to change the narrative around him. Let’s examine three reasons why Herbert is this year’s MVP sleeper, and capable of winning the award. 

1. A change in the Chargers’ offensive identity

If there’s one takeaway from the Chargers through two weeks, it’s that this offense is operating differently in Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era. In 2024, Herbert’s job was to play efficient football and avoid turnovers. He threw a career-low three interceptions, but averaged a career-low 227.6 passing yards per game. It took him until Week 6 to surpass 180 yards passing in a single game. 

In this year’s season-opening win vs. the Chiefs, not many were expecting Herbert to attempt 34 passes, throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. In fact, he became just the first quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a wire-to-wire win vs. Mahomes. It’s never happened before. 

While Herbert didn’t exactly light the world on fire vs. Las Vegas on Monday night, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-9 victory, it was his 28th career game with multiple passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. According to CBS Sports Research, that is good enough for third-most in a quarterback’s first six seasons all time. 

Through two games this year, Herbert has thrown five touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. He is just the second quarterback in Chargers history to do this, joining Stan Humphries in 1994 and Philip Rivers in 2016. 

The Chargers passing offense currently ranks No. 4 in the NFL, while the rushing offense ranks No. 25. It goes without being said, but a quarterback needs to throw the ball if he wants to win MVP. Herbert has done just that through two games.

Justin Herbert through two games

2. Herbert has an arsenal of weapons 

All five of Herbert’s touchdowns this season have gone to wide receivers. L.A. did not boast the best group of wideouts last season, but through two weeks, this new group has been better than expected.

Ladd McConkey was viewed as the Chargers’ best receiver in 2024. As a rookie, he caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. Through two games this season, he has caught 11 passes for 122 yards.

Keenan Allen was a late, yet welcomed addition for the Chargers, as he returned to Los Angeles on a one-year deal on Aug. 5. After a disappointing season with the Chicago Bears, Allen has picked up right where he left off with Herbert, and caught 12 passes for 129 yards and two touchdowns over the first two contests.

McConkey and Allen are certainly talented, but it’s actually Quentin Johnston who is the Chargers’ leading receiver through two games! His name was previously synonymous with embarrassing drops, but that is quickly changing, as the former No. 21 overall pick has caught eight passes for 150 yards and three touchdowns through two weeks. Those three touchdown receptions are tied for most in the NFL. 

Johnston has finally evolved into the deep-ball threat the Chargers envisioned, plus Herbert has a veteran perimeter threat in Allen and a crafty slot weapon in McConkey. Those are the headliners, but that’s not all.

The Chargers also selected wide receiver Tre Harris out of Ole Miss in the second round. He led the FBS in receiving yards per game last season with 128.9, and was named First Team All-SEC. L.A. also scored KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the fifth round. The nephew of Kam Chancellor caught 50 passes for 981 yards and eight touchdowns for the Auburn Tigers last season, is 6-foot-1 and ran a 4.37 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton hasn’t exactly starred in the Chargers’ first two games, but he was the only player in the FBS to rush for 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons.

Through two weeks, it’s clear that Herbert has a solid supporting cast, which will help him rack up stats and win games. 

3. The Chargers are a good team, from coaching staff to roster

You have to play for a good team if you want to win MVP. You can’t put up great stats yet go 9-8, just ask Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase about that. 

Herbert’s defense was something that held him back early in his career. Did you know he recorded the most completions (1,613) and passing yards (17,223) in a player’s first four seasons in NFL history? He was also tied with Mahomes for the second-most passing touchdowns through four seasons (114), trailing only Dan Marino. Before Harbaugh got to town, Herbert was 30-32 as a starter. His offense averaged 24.4 points per game, while the Chargers defense allowed 24.8 points per game. Those 24.4 points per game are the second-most points per game averaged by a quarterback with a losing record since 1950. Point is, Herbert was better than his record indicated. 

Now, Herbert has a coach who not only has been to the Super Bowl and won a College Football Playoff National Championship, but also believes in him to the point where he thinks Herbert can be a Hall of Famer. 

At defensive coordinator, Herbert has a head coach in waiting with Jesse Minter. Last year, Los Angeles became the first team since the 1993 New York Giants to go from 24th or worse in scoring defense to No. 1! The Chargers allowed a league-leading 17.7 points per game last season after allowing 23.4 points per game in 2023. There’s no debating that this Chargers defense has been one of the best in the NFL over the last calendar year.

At offensive coordinator, Herbert has Greg Roman, who is someone who can get the most out of his running backs, and also had a hand in developing Jackson during his time with the Baltimore Ravens. What’s more is that this is just the second time in Herbert’s NFL career that he has had the same offensive coordinator in back-to-back seasons. Consistency is key. 

At 27 years old, Herbert is still improving, and capable of competing with the top quarterbacks in the world. He has a talented cast of weapons around him, and an even more talented coaching staff that believes in his potential. If the first two weeks of the season are any indication, Herbert could be your MVP sleeper in 2025.