Sometimes, when a season goes sideways, people try to find one moment where everything fell apart. One bad trade. One injury. One awful game that changed the mood around the room.
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But when you step back and look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season, it’s probably easier to understand if you break the schedule into sections. Three sections tell the story pretty clearly: the slow start, the brief surge that gave everyone hope, and the collapse that followed.
Section 1: The Maple Leafs’ Slow Start
The Maple Leafs opened the season unevenly. They went 3-4-1 in their first eight games, which wasn’t great but also wasn’t a disaster. For a moment, it looked like they were finding their rhythm when they won five of their next six games.
(James Guillory-Imagn Images)
Then the wheels started wobbling again. Toronto followed that mini-run by losing seven of their next eight games, and by the time the club reached the 35-game mark, they were sitting at 15-15-5.
In today’s three-point NHL, that .500 record doesn’t keep you afloat for long. At that point, the Maple Leafs were last in the Atlantic Division, second-last in the Eastern Conference, and 25th overall in the league.
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Not a great place to be, but still early enough that things could turn around.
Section 2: The Maple Leafs’ Hopeful Surge
For a brief stretch, things actually did turn around. The Maple Leafs suddenly caught fire and ripped off an 8-0-2 run over ten games. During that stretch, they looked like a completely different team.
That run moved them up to fourth in the Atlantic Division and pushed them into the first wildcard spot in the East. Even more impressive, they climbed 15 spots in the overall NHL standings, landing 10th in the league. In other words, they were right back in the playoff conversation.
(John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
Then came a strange little three-game stretch that felt like a warning sign. The Leafs were hammered 6-1 by the Utah Mammoth, then blew a two-goal third-period lead against the Vegas Golden Knights before losing 6-5 in overtime. To their credit, they bounced back with a dramatic 4-3 overtime win against the Winnipeg Jets, erasing a 3-1 deficit on the road.
Over those three games, Toronto went 1-1-1, which technically wasn’t terrible. But the team slipped one point out of a playoff spot, and the momentum from that ten-game surge began to fade.
Section 3: The Maple Leafs’ Final Collapse
In this final section, things really started to fall apart. In the 15 games since that comeback win in Winnipeg, the Maple Leafs have managed to win just three times. Their record over that stretch is 3-10-2, which is the worst mark in the NHL during that period.
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The result? The Maple Leafs now sit last in the Atlantic, second-last in the Eastern Conference, and nine points out of a playoff spot. Overall, they’ve slid back to 25th in the league.
That’s not a slump. That’s a full-blown collapse.
What Actually Went Wrong for the Maple Leafs?
In this Maple Leafs’ collapse, there are plenty of places to point the finger. You could blame injuries to key players or the compressed schedule. But every team deals with those things.
You could question general manager Brad Treliving’s roster construction in the post-Mitch Marner era, especially whether the right complementary pieces were added around the remaining core.
You could also look behind the bench. Some observers wonder whether head coach Craig Berube has struggled either to motivate the group or to install a system that consistently produces winning hockey.
But the Biggest Surprise Is Auston Matthews’ Lack of Scoring
But when you start digging into the numbers from the past 15 games, one stat jumps off the page. The number “2.” That’s how many goals Auston Matthews has scored during that stretch. For a player widely considered one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, that’s stunning. Matthews’ two goals over those 15 games tie him for seventh on the team during that span.
Players like Mattias Maccelli and John Tavares have five goals in that stretch. Bobby McMann (now departed), Matthew Knies, and William Nylander have four each. Even Max Domi has three.
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Over those 15 games, Matthews is scoring at the pace of 11 goals over a full 82-game season. When your most dangerous scorer goes quiet, the ripple effect hits the entire lineup. Suddenly, the margin for error disappears.
Matthews’ Drought and the Team’s Woeful Defence Created the Perfect Storm
When you combine that with shaky team defence — something the plus/minus numbers during this stretch reflect pretty clearly — you start to see why the Leafs’ season has gone the way it has.
The slow start hurt them. The surge gave them hope. But the collapse since January is what will ultimately define the season.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
