MLB Opening Day 2026 occurs for 22 teams on Thursday, including the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates. They will square off, with both coming off disappointing seasons that missed out on the playoffs. New York (83-79) had the best record in baseball in mid-June but faltered down the stretch to miss out on the postseason for the second year in a row. Pittsburgh (71-91) finished last in the NL Central and missed out on October for the 10th straight year. Reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes (10-10, 1.97 ERA) gets the 2026 MLB Opening Day start for Pittsburgh, with the Mets countering with new addition Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA).
First pitch is at 1:15 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. The latest Pirates vs. Mets odds list New York as the -122 favorite on the money line (risk $122 to win $100). The over/under for total runs is 6.5. Before making any Mets vs. Pirates picks, be sure to see the Pirates vs. Mets predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.Â
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It was a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season. It also excelled making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  Â
Now, the model has set its sights on Pirates vs. Mets and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Mets vs. Pirates:
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Pirates vs. Mets money line |
Mets -122, Pirates +102 |
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Pirates vs. Mets over/under |
6.5 runs |
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Pirates vs. Mets run line |
Mets +1.5 (-211) |
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Pirates vs. Mets picks |
See picks at SportsLine |
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Pirates vs. Mets streaming |
Peacock |
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Top Mets vs. Pirates predictionsÂ
After 10,000 simulations of Pirates vs. Mets, the model is going Over 6.5 combined runs. The Pirates have a recent history of providing fans with high-scoring affairs out of the gate, as the Over has hit in each of the last six Opening Day games for Pittsburgh. Last season, the Pirates and Mets last faced off in a three-game set in late June, and the Over hit in all three contests. Each of the three saw 10-plus runs scored as they averaged 11.3 total runs.
While Skenes is projected to have a strong 6.2 innings, Pittsburgh’s bullpen is forecasted to allow more ER in its 2.8 innings than the Cy Young winner does the entire game. Meanwhile, Peralta is projected to have more runs allowed, hits allowed and walks allowed than his counterpart on the mound, and a total of six players, from both teams, will go over 1.5 total bases per 10,000 simulations. With the Pirates finding success off Peralta, and the Mets bats heating up against Pittsburgh’s bullpen, the model calls for 8.7 runs as the Over hits 70% of the time in an A-rated pick. Get the Mets vs. Pirates money-line pick at SportsLine.
How to make Pirates vs. Mets picks
After simulating every pitch of Mets vs. Pirates 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.Â
So who wins Pirates vs. Mets, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
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