The Red Wings’ biggest weakness over the balance of this season has been their lack of even strength goal scoring. One of the players who projects to be a significant part of the solution is physical winger Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (MBN) who has an excellent release and should be a sniper in Detroit’s top-six before long.
Related: How Have the Red Wings’ Youngsters Performed This Season?
The only problem is, Brandsegg-Nygård has suffered from the worst puck luck in the entire league this season.
League’s Lowest PDO
If you’re not familiar, PDO is a metric that adds a player’s on ice shooting percentage (how many of his team’s shots are goals while he’s on the ice) and a player’s on ice save percentage (how many shots against are saved while he’s on the ice). When added together, the numbers should equally roughly 1.00, which is considered even luck. For example, a player with an on ice shooting % of 5% and an on ice save percentage of 91% would have a PDO of 96, a bit unlucky.
MBN’s PDO score through 12 NHL games this season ranks last in the entire league among all players to play at least 100 minutes at five on five. How many players have played 100 mins at five on five you ask? That would be 761.
Detroit has taken 65 shots with MBN on the ice, but they have only scored one goal, for a shooting percentage of 1.54% (Stats via Natural Stat Trick). That is an abysmal on ice shooting percentage, one so low that it can’t be counted on to continue forever. 1.54% is the lowest rate on the Red Wings by a good margin with John Leonard ranking next with 4.55% and most of Detroit’s regulars landing somewhere between 5 and 8%.
MBN’s on ice save percentage is also unsustainably low at 83.78%, which also ranks last on the Red Wings third last in the NHL (759th). There are six Red Wings players who have an on ice save percentage below 90%, but the next closest to MBN is Axel Sandin Pellikka who has a 88.46%.
Through 12 games played, MBN’s PDO sits at 0.853, one of the worst marks in recent NHL history. In fact, over the past 10 seasons, the only player to have a lower season-long PDO (minimum 100 mins played) is Ryan Winterton last season with 0.850 PDO. Every other player to play that much in any of the past 10 seasons had better luck.
Too Good of a Shooter
While Brandsegg-Nygård is still a rookie and shouldn’t be expected to score goals in bunches just yet, he is far too talented as a goal scorer to have the worst shooting percentage in the league. In 52 games so far this season in the AHL with the Grand Rapids Griffins, MBN has 16 goals, the fifth highest mark in that league among U21 players.
MBN’s shot has always been one of his calling cards, but his tenacity and physical play are what makes his shot so dangerous. A combination of playing low in the lineup, trying to play safe NHL minutes so he isn’t benched and probably nerves has prevented him from scoring his first goal.
Reasons for Hope
The last time MBN played in his own age group was in the 2023-24 season where he played just seven games in the J20 Nationell (Sweden’s top junior league) before being elevated to the Hockey Allsvenskan. In this seven games, he had five goals and 12 points, clearly proving himself too good for the junior level. He has been a professional player ever since, though the goals and points have come a bit slower in Sweden’s pro leagues and then in North American as well.
Regardless of his early struggles scoring, I expect the former 15th overall pick will be a full time NHLer next season, and could threaten 20 goals as a rookie. The most shocking part of his subterranean PDO is that he has out-shot opponents at a higher rate than any other Red Wing at 63.73%. He also holds an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) just north of 55%, second on the team only to Moritz Seider who is in the midst of a dominant career year.
