MLB Best Home Run Bets July 24

MLB Best Home Run Bets 7/24

These lines do move so you may not get the same price at your book at your time.

Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) +475, BetMGM

Soderstrom is usually a solid play against right-handed pitchers according to the model, and that’s the case again today. He’s hit 17 of his 18 home runs this season off righties. He faced Jason Alexander (the pitcher, not George Costanza) about a month ago and, while he didn’t record a hit, he put the ball in play all three at-bats—including a 110 mph exit velocity in his final plate appearance. Although Alexander hasn’t pitched much in the majors this season, he’s allowing a .988 OPS against left-handed hitters. We set Soderstrom’s line around +350 to homer.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) +525, BetMGM

Tatis surprisingly has not faced Sonny Gray in his career, but we see good longshot value here. Tatis is beyond due—he hasn’t homered in his last 10 games and has just one in his last 24. Despite the drought, he still has 16 home runs on the season, so the power is there. Gray gave up 8 earned runs in just 3.1 innings in his last start, and right-handed bats have a .276 average and .771 OPS against him this season. This could be a great spot for Tatis to break out. We set his line at +412 to homer.

José Altuve (HOU) +675, BetMGM

Altuve has seen Luis Severino plenty in his career, going 13-for-43 with 1 home run. He’s swinging a hot bat right now, with 4 multi-hit games in his last 7. Altuve has also been much better at home this season, hitting .316 with 10 home runs in 51 home games. The +675 line on BetMGM is excellent value, especially considering other books have him closer to +475. We set Altuve’s line at +550 to homer today.

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Same Game Parlay:

Sonny Gray O 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135, DraftKings)

Gray has allowed 2+ runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and the one start which he didn’t, he allowed 1 run in just 3 innings pitched before a rain delay shortened his outing. We project Gray to allow nearly 2.5 runs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-140, DraftKings)

Tatis Jr. has never seen Gray in his career, but he has favorable splits against right-handed pitchers, and Gray has struggled against right-handed batters as of late. We set Tatis’ line at 2.4 HRR. 

San Diego Padres +1.5 (-169, DraftKings)

The Padres have struggled as of late, but both of their losses against the Marlins came by exactly one run. The Cardinals are just 2-7 in their last 9 games. We like the Padres chances of keeping this game close. We set their RL at almost -200. 

3-Leg SGP: +188

Athletics vs. Houston Athletics Best Bet

Nick Kurtz O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-145, BetMGM)

Kurtz enjoys playing the Astros. He is 4-0 on this over with 4.2 average HRR in those 4 games. Kurtz is red hot and is 9-2 on the over in his last 11 games played. We set his line at 2.6 Hits+Runs+RBIs.

Today’s MLB Prop Cheat Sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Soderstrom is a top play because our line is just +331 but you can get +475 at BetMGM.