MLB futures odds: 2026 AL, NL Cy Young best bets, longshots, fades from expert

The Cy Young Award is given to the top pitcher in each league and with the 2026 MLB season set to begin in one week, SportsLine expert Angelo Magliocca has highlighted his best bet, longshot worth backing and one pitcher to avoid in each league for that honor. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is attempting to win for the third year in a row in the American League, while Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes will try to repeat as the NL winner.

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Magliocca, also known as “Amags” is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays. 

Here’s a look at his picks and analysis: for the AL and NL Cy Young Award in 2026:

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The Cy Young Award is one of the toughest to predict each year and betting properly on this market is not easy. Favorites like Skubal and Skenes, the winners from last season, have odds around +300 and +200 respectively, making them a risky proposition. Of course, these are two of the best pitchers in baseball. But at their current odds, you need to tie up considerably more money over an entire season to have a similar return as betting a longshot. That’s not to say backing the favorites for these awards is wrong, but generally I am betting on longshots when trying to pick a Cy Young or MVP winner. We’ve seen longshots win this award more often than not in recent years, like Rick Porcello in 2016 at incredibly 200-1 preseason odds, while fewer pitchers in the top few spots in the odds table have ended up winning.

Regardless of the odds, I’ve created a system for myself to analyze this market where I am only looking at pitchers projected to throw 175+ innings and those that will be near 200+ strikeouts. Only once since the short season in 2020 has a pitcher not eclipsed 175 innings and won the award — Corbin Burnes in 2021, when he was outstanding to begin the season with 58 strikeouts before issuing a single walk. There would need to be something historic like that for a pitcher to not have at least 175 innings and win the award, and finding those random diamonds in the rough is not something you can reliably bet on. When making these bets, it’s really about thinking how the voters think. They want a solid ERA under 3.00 (along with WHIP near 1.00 or better), close to 200 innings pitched, although in recent years that restriction has waned, and good strikeout numbers are always a plus. Only one pitcher in the last five seasons has won the award with less than 200 strikeouts, so it’s a nice addition to the resume but getting swing and miss is also a requirement to some extent.

AL best bet: Jacbo deGrom (+1300)

DeGrom was a massive surprise last year, especially in terms of innings pitched. He got up over 170, which was not something I saw coming, and building off of that this year would be the perfect way to get himself back into the Cy Young conversation. He had a WHIP below one with an expected ERA around 3.30, both stellar marks that won’t need much improvement to get him the award, and the whiff rates on his slider and changeup returned, not the full form but to at least 40%, which is notably good just not “Jacob DeGrom good.”

Again, building off the results from last year is needed but giving us a price that sets him outside the top options in the AL is exactly why I have this as my favorite play here. He’s got more upside than most of the arms at that price and pitching in Texas gives him an advantage, as Globe Life Park ranks as the second-best pitchers park in the AL. He was 12-8 in 30 starts and had some rougher outings that could have helped make his numbers look even better if they hadn’t happened, plus the offense will hopefully be much better for Texas this year with new additions and a healthy Corey Seager back. A WAR near 3.5 was not something I saw coming last year and neither was striking out 185 batters, so let’s say he improves on both, hits the 180+ inning mark, and comes away with 15+ wins; how could he not be in the conversation, let alone be left out of the final vote?

NL best bet: Logan Webb (+2000)

Maybe not the best bet you were expecting, but as I said, I like to take shots in this market and while we have plenty of great options in the +1000 range, I think this may finally be the year Logan Webb breaks through. He’s finished second, sixth, and fourth in the Cy Young race over the past three seasons and after being a key contributor to Team USA’s run to the WBC championship, I’m happy to have this one on my card especially at this price. Webb gets the benefit of pitching in the best ballpark in the NL for pitchers, helping suppress anything he allows in the air, which isn’t many balls being he’s got a studly 54% ground ball rate. He’s got the sixth-lowest fly ball rate, and the seventh-highest ground ball rate, yet he was also able to strike out considerably more batters over the last year, topping 220+ strikeouts in 200+ innings in 2025.

With the added strikeouts now, Webb has the makeup to finally get over the hump and win this award and all he really needs is for Skenes to have a slight slip up. If Skenes continues to dominate and even take a step forward, it will be tough to dethrone him as the Cy Young but with Skubal and Crochet being two of the top options on the odds board and playing in the AL, it does open things up for the NL to be more of a race as opposed to the AL where it could be just a few top arms competing for the award. The Giants starter isn’t someone you would immediately think of as Cy Young-caliber, but with an offense behind him that’s gotten better and a defense that should be solid, his 15-11 record could improve to something like 17-8 and the 3.22 ERA from last year is encouraging. His expected ERA was slightly higher but seeing him take the step forward with the change up whiff rate last year was impressive, going from 21% to nearly 32% year over year, giving him now three pitches with around a 30%+ whiff rate. He’s kept his walks down at just two per nine innings, and at this price I love having a steady force like Webb on my Cy Young tickets.

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AL longshot: Gavin Williams (+4000)

Gavin Williams has the profile to easily win this award one day and is coming into his own as the top arm on the Cleveland pitching staff. I love the prospects of him winning the AL Cy Young this year. Major projection systems have him close to that 175-inning mark, but I believe if he stays healthy he can easily top 200 innings with at least a strikeout per inning. He was 12-5 in 31 starts last year, with just under 170 innings pitched and an ERA at 3.06, yet the expected ERA being well over a run higher points to major regression for him. But at 26 years old and being a former first round pick, the chances we continue to see him improve are rather high.

Let’s just say he cuts the expected ERA to around 3.75, but outperforms again and gets the ERA below 3.00 while throwing 185+ innings; how could he not be in the conversation? He’s got the strikeout upside with 173 in 167 innings, and the whiff rate on his sweeper was above 44% last year in his first go around with the pitch. He’s improved his arsenal, showing signs of growth and maturity as the No. 1 starter for Cleveland and gets the benefit of pitching in the third-best ballpark in the AL for pitchers. Last year was just the first season we’ve seen him go over 100 innings let alone 150, so there are many unknowns with Williams and in my opinion, a lot of room for growth from the former first-round pick.

NL longshot: Jesus Luzardo (+4000)

If not for the 30 runs he allowed in 15 innings across four starts in June and July last year, the end of year numbers would look even more sparkling for Jesus Luzardo. Still, he finished at 15-7 with 180+ innings pitched and 216 strikeouts in that time. His expected ERA was more than a half run lower than his actual 3.92 ERA, and the FIP was actually below 3.00 when all was said and done. He amassed a WAR above five, something only five other pitchers did last year, and one of which was his teammate Cristopher Sanchez, who he will undoubtedly be fighting with for this award.

Sanchez has odds around +700 while the price on Luzardo is +4000, and when you dive into the numbers, they didn’t perform that differently last year. Sure the run suppression was better for Sanchez, but some of his numbers point to negative regression since his ERA was 2.50 but the expected ERA was just above 3.00. Luzardo ended with an expected ERA just 0.30 off of Sanchez, and he had to deal with a higher BABIP, albeit that is partially due to Sanchez being a ground ball merchant. Luzardo moved to the Philly last year and gets the benefit of working with pitching coach Caleb Cotham, who’s found success year after year churning out top pitchers for the Phillies. The change to Luzardo’s repertoire last year led to a sweeper becoming his best pitch, being thrown more than 30% of the time and whiffing hitters at a rate better than 40%. He should lean into that pitch even more this year, one that racked up almost 100 strikeouts in the 2025 season, and that should help propel him to another stellar campaign.

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AL pitcher to fade: Bryan Woo (+1700)

Bryan Woo isn’t usually the top name that we would think of when looking to the Mariners for a pitcher in this market, but this year he’s a favorite option for many bettors. Logan Gilbert still has my respect as the best arm on this pitching staff, and while I will give Woo credit after he was fantastic for much of the 2025 season, he ended the year with an injury and has previously had arm issues. That’s not to say he can’t get past those ailments and pitching in the best pitcher’s park in the majors always helps, but his teammate Gilbert is priced at +2000 so I’d much rather take a shot again on him instead of Woo. It’s more the price depression and injury risk here with Woo that makes him my fade pick, but I also worry how easy it will be for him to replicate his 2025 season which was his best yet. He was 15-7, topping 180 innings pitched and was at 198 strikeouts through 30 starts; all career high marks, and now we need him to repeat that effort. Gilbert has been a stud arm for the Mariners year in and year out so my bet would rather be on Gilbert being the best pitching in that staff as opposed to Woo and at a better price, I’m taking Gilbert before Woo.

NL pitcher to fade: Zack Wheeler (+1600)

It’s yet to be seen how much of Zack Wheeler we will actually get in 2026 after he had surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome over the offseason. He’s just starting to ramp up this spring and finally faced live hitters, but missing at least a month if not two or more does not bode well for his prospects of even being involved in this race let alone warranting the current price. He’s a stud pitcher when healthy but we have no idea what we’ll get from him when he comes back. Even if he’s incredible when he returns, I don’t see how he can possibly get near the innings threshold to have a run at the Cy Young. Unlike Wo,o where I just think there are too many folks betting on him when he has injury potential and better priced options around him, this one is merely just a fade on the numbers you need to reach to be considered for the Cy Young award. If the Phillies want any shot of a deep run in the postseason, they’ll need Wheeler to be healthy and keeping him healthy after his surgery will likely be the top priority, thus pushing his innings potential down even further.