NFL free agency playbook: Ten rules to follow before spending frenzy

Roughly four billion dollars will be spent in free agency this offseason, which amounts to the GDP of a small country. It’s an absurd amount when you consider how much of a crapshoot NFL free agency is.

Take the Seahawks and Vikings for example. Both ranked top five in free agent spending last offseason but went in opposite directions this season because of their decision on Sam Darnold. It was hard to blame Minnesota at the time for moving off Darnold after his last two games of 2024.

Or look at the NFC South. The Saints and Falcons spent exorbitant amounts on Derek Carr (four-yeal deal worth $160 million) and Kirk Cousins (four-yeal deal worth $180 million) in free agency in the last three years. Meanwhile, it’s Baker Mayfield who is still standing in the division after signing a one-year deal for a miniscule $4 million with the Buccaneers in 2023. 

Albert Haynesworth (2010 Washington) and Ndamukong Suh (2014 Dolphins) both signed for $100+ million in free agency and ended up being among the biggest busts, ever.

Free agency is fool’s gold. It doesn’t make sense but I’m going to try to make sense of it with 10 rules to follow. I sprinkled in some facts about trades, extensions and the draft because it all blends together into one offseason smorgasbord. Let’s have some fun with it!

Rule 1: Don’t expect free agent spending to equal success

Free agent spending does not equal success. There’s literally no correlation. Here’s a plot of every team’s record and free agent spending rank in each of the past 10 seasons. 

You’ll notice the red “trend line” going every so slightly down. Meaning, the more you spend, the less you win, if anything.

Teams that spend the most money in free agency are usually dumpster fire franchises that aren’t drafting and developing well, so instead of paying their own players, they overpay for veterans in free agency. It’s an ineffective Band-Aid. 

This year’s Super Bowl teams are the exception, not the rule. The 2025 Patriots authored one of the greatest turnarounds ever to reach the Super Bowl and the Seahawks won it all. Both ranked top five in free agent spending last offseason.

Still, the top five free agent spenders on an annual basis over the last 10 seasons have a win pct of .471. The teams at the bottom have winning records, though.

Annual free agent spending rank in last 10 seasons

The above chart is just looking at free agent spending and team records by season.

If you total everything up it’s even more clear how unsustainable it is.

The bottom 11 teams in free agent spending over the last 15 offseasons all have winning records in that span. That’s teams like the Packers, Steelers, Chiefs and Ravens. 

Seven of the top eight teams in free agent spending over the last 15 offseasons have a losing record in that span. That’s teams like the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders and Giants: Perennial bottom feeders that keep coming back to the well in free agency.

Of course, since the worst teams are usually spending the most money there’s only one way to go sometimes, up. Teams that rank top 10 in free agent spending improve their win total by 1.4 on average in the last 10 seasons. But again, when you’re starting from the bottom, an extra one or two wins isn’t going to move the needle much. 

The Seahawks and GM John Schneider put on a team-building masterclass in the last few years. It’s critical to draft and develop well (Devon Witherspoon, Byron Murphy, Nick Emmanwori, Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and complement that with free agent signings (Darnold, Demarcus Lawrence, Julian Love) and trades (Ernest Jones, Leonard Williams). 

Rule 2: Go QB bargain shopping

Rebooting quarterbacks is in right now. Darnold, Daniel Jones, Mayfield, Jared Goff have silenced a lot of doubters. 

You should be able to find crazy bargains, too. A free agent QB signed to a one-year deal has started a playoff game in each of the last four seasons. 

Notable quarterbacks on one-year deals since 2022

Of course, opening up the checkbook for a free agent QB isn’t such a bad idea, either. Four teams have won a Super Bowl in the last 20 seasons with a free agent QB they did not draft. The 2009 Saints (Drew Brees), 2015 Broncos (Peyton Manning), 2020 Buccaneers (Tom Brady) and 2025 Seahawks (Darnold). 

This offseason’s top-shelf QBs appear to be Jones and Malik Willis. Possibly Tua Tagovailoa, Cousins, Kyler Murray and Derek Carr if they become available. Bargain shoppers can buy a cheap lotto ticket in Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. 

While rebooting a QB is becoming increasingly popular, set realistic expectations, too. First-round QB misses have combined for nearly 100 fresh starts in the last two decades. The hit rate is only about 10%. 

Rule 3: It’s OK to pay running backs on short-term deals

Paying running backs used to be a hard pass. Never pay veteran backs and don’t take running backs high in the draft because it’s the most expendable position in the league. 

That was until the 2024 free agent class. There was $250M spent on free agent running backs in 2024, $100M more than any other class in the last 15 offseasons. It was money well spent as Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, among others, flat out dominated.

Highest average annual salary among 2024 free agent RB class

The group fell off to a degree in 2025 and teams could be on the hook for down years on the backend of these contracts, but it’s still an overall win for the RB market.

Average season among top six highest-paid free agent RB in 2024

The class taught us you should spend on running backs, when they are really, really good. Barkley and Henry are incredible talents. 

But, 2025 reminded us that bargains are still widely available. A 2025 free agent class devoid of household names netted the least amount of free agent spending on RBs ($59M) since 2012.

As my teammate Jared Dubin put it, the reason the Cowboys shouldn’t give 2026 Javonte Williams a big deal is because you can get someone like 2025 Javonte Williams for nothing (he signed a one-year deal worth $3 million last offseason). 

So where is the running back market today? It’s still volatile but more acceptable than in the past to spend money at this position, especially on shorter deals. 

Next month will put this to the test. There’s five players who rushed for 1,000 yards in 2025 on the open market: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne, Williams and Rico Dowdle. 

No, it’s not a home run class like 2024, but they can build on the momentum of that group by continuing to turn the running back market. 

Rule 4: Beware of the age-30 wall … for wide receivers

Speaking of running backs, you’ve probably heard of the age-30 RB wall. But, did you know about the age-30 WR wall?

Frankly, investing a significant amount in any non-quarterback on the wrong side of 30 is a scary prospect. That’s been especially true at wide receiver where there are a few players who could be in the crosshairs this offseason.

The first is A.J. Brown. He’s not a free agent but could be available via trade after a drama-filled season in Philadelphia. He turns 29 this summer but history shows teams should be hesitant to pursue him. Elite wideouts just don’t age well. 

I looked at every wide receiver with 10,000 career receiving yards to debut since 2000. They average 89.8 receiving yards per game from ages 25-29 and it falls off a cliff to 64.3 yards per game from ages 30-34.

If you’re thinking about backing up the brink trucks for a wide receiver approaching 30, good luck. We can throw 49ers free agent Jauan Jennings into the mix, too. He has the fourth-highest market value of any 2026 free agent, according to Spotrac at $23 million. 

He could soon command an offer that ranks him among the top 20 highest paid at the position. That’s too rich for my blood as he turns 29 in July. Yes, he has been the 49ers’ escape valve on third downs, earning him the nickname, “third and Jauan.” He also has 15 touchdown grabs in the last two years. 

However, there’s even more data to suggest that paying big money to wide receivers approaching age 30 is a very bad idea.

Nine wide receivers have signed long-term deals at age 29 or older in the last 10 seasons that paid them among the 10 highest at the position. They’ve combined for 10 1,000-yard seasons in 24 years on those deals. Terry McLaurin appears to be the latest bust signing. Tyreek Hill’s deal was a disaster.

Jennings, of course, won’t get top 10 money, but this type of data should give any team pause. 

Here are those deals. See for yourself.

2025 Terry McLaurin (three-year/$97M deal)

• 582 rec yds in 2025 (first season under 900 yds)

2024 Tyreek Hill (three-year/$90M deal)

• 1,224 rec yds in 1st 2 years of deal after back-to-back 1,700-yard years

2022 Davante Adams (five-year/$140M deal)

• Three 1,000-yard seasons on deal before being released by Jets

2022 Stefon Diggs (four-year/$96M deal)

• Traded to Texans after second of four-year deal
• Ended Bills career with 13 straight games under 100 rec yds
• Tore ACL in 2024 with Texans and signed with Patriots in 2025

2022 Cooper Kupp (three-year/$80M deal)

• Signed following triple crown season and Super Bowl win in 2021
• Missed 18 games in three seasons
• Released last offseason and signed by Seahawks

2021 Tyler Lockett (four-year/$69M deal)

• 63.3 rec YPG under that contract (51.5 prior)
• Contract restructured in 2024 and released in 2025 entering final year of deal

2019 Julio Jones (three-year/$66M deal)

• Last 1,000-yard season in 2019
• Traded to Titans in 2021

2019 Adam Thielen (four-year/$64M deal)

• Zero 1,000-yard seasons during deal
• Released in 2023 offseason

2017 Antonio Brown (four-year/$68M deal)

• Traded to Raiders in 2019

Rule 5: Extend star players early and don’t play the waiting game

Free agency is not just about free agent signings. We are going to see trades and also massive deals as players drafted in 2023 will be eligible for extensions the first time. My rule for teams: extend superstars early. Don’t play the waiting game with the likes of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Puka Nacua, Smith-Njigba, Witherspoon and Will Anderson Jr.

Jerry Jones is the reason why. He has run a clinic on what not to do with negotiating contract extensions with star players in recent seasons. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell laid this out last offseason when the Cowboys were dragging out negotiations with yet another star, this time Micah Parsons. 

Now, the Cowboys didn’t keep Parsons, but if they had paid him his market value (which turned out to be $47 million per year) then they hypothetically would have spent roughly $100M more than they had to by delaying long-term deals for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Parsons in the last five years. 

The market price for these players was much higher when they waited a year longer than they needed to for extensions.

The Cowboys could face a similar situation if they franchise George Pickens in 2026 and wait until 2027 to give him a long-term deal. Just pay him now and avoid giving him a contract that is at least $5 million more per year next offseason. 

Rule 6: Don’t pay tight ends big money in free agency

Let’s face it, the best players are rarely hitting free agency if NFL teams are doing it right. Draft, develop and retain. That means the players that do make it through to free agency often get overpaid and underperform. 

That might be true of tight ends more than any position. Now, 2026 has an attractive free agent tight end class headlined by Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, Isaiah Likely and Dallas Goedert, among others. But, buyer beware. Check out the 10 biggest deals ever given to tight ends in free agency. They averaged 464 receiving yards per season with their new teams and combined for zero Pro Bowls and zero 1,000-yard seasons. Most deals were busts with the exception of Hunter Henry. 

Most guaranteed money given to free agent tight ends all time

Rule 7: Protect your franchise quarterback

It’s nice to have someone to throw to, but first you must protect your franchise quarterback. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and was sacked a career-high 2.4 times per game last year after the Chiefs traded All-Pro guard Joe Thuney (who won the first ever ‘Protector of the Year’ award) to the Bears.

On the flip side, Caleb Williams was sacked 24 times in 2025 after getting planted 68 times as a rookie. The Bears overhauled their offensive line last year with ideal results, bringing in Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman. 

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the top offensive lineman in the 2026 class. The four most valuable guys in terms of Spotrac’s projected market value were on some important security detail in 2025.

Highest market value among 2026 free agent offensive linemen

Bonus: I have to squeeze this one in, too. As I looked at the offensive line free agents I noticed a lot of Cleveland Browns. Turns out, their entire starting offensive line is set to become free agents. 

That never happens. No team since the 1970 merger has lost all five of its top five offensive line starters in the same offseason like Cleveland could do in 2026. 

Browns 2025 starting offensive line

Now, if any team could actually get better by losing an entire position group, sadly, it would be the Browns. But, my rule is this: Don’t lose your entire offensive line. Not usually good for business!

Rule 8: Don’t pay aging pass rushers

Trey Hendrickson is the biggest name among edge rushers on the market this year. He’s only one year removed from back-to-back 17-sack seasons.

But, he is 31 years old coming off a season where he missed 10 games due to a hip injury.

History says stay away from elite pass rushers at this age. I looked at pass rushers like Hendrickson with at least four 10-sack seasons at age 30-or younger since 2000. This group of over 30 players falls off a cliff in terms of production in their 30s. They average 12.7 sacks at age 29 and 7.4 by age 31.

Worst-case scenario, you get the Von Miller deal. He signed a six-year/$120M contract worth over $50M in guarantees at age 32 with Buffalo in 2022 coming off a Super Bowl title with the Rams. He had 14.0 sacks in three seasons with Buffalo.

A better outcome would be DeMarcus Ware. He signed a three-year/$30M deal with Denver in 2014 at age 32. He had 10.0 sacks in 2014 and 7.5 in 2015 when they won the Super Bowl. 

Rule 9: Buyer beware overpaying cornerbacks

I feel like a broken record here, but this is what free agent spending does to a man! If it sounds like I’m telling you to be frugal in free agency, well it’s the sobering truth! Don’t stuff your money under a mattress, but be careful. 

Almost everyone gets more money than they are worth. That was especially true with last year’s cornerback class.

Ten cornerbacks got $10 million per year in free agency last offseason. They combined for a grand total of seven interceptions last season. For the math majors out there, that’s less than one interception per player. Collectively, they allowed a 76.1 passer rating in coverage. The league average is 76.3. That is pathetic.

Highest average annual value — 2025 free agent cornerbacks

This year’s crop is headlined by names like Nahshon Wright, Jaylen Watson, Jamel Dean, Alontae Taylor, Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen, Roger McCreary and Greg Newsome.

One boom-or-bust candidate who stands out is Saints’ Taylor. He allowed an NFL-high 20 touchdowns in coverage in the past three seasons but definitely has a nose for the ball. He’s in rare company among cornerbacks with 75+ tackles and 10+ passes defended in three straight seasons. That last two to accomplish was DeAngelo Hall from 2010-13 and Charles Tillman from 2010-12.

Taylor is a versatile player who logged the third-most snaps in the slot (1,558) by any corner in the last three seasons, which could drive up his value. 

Rule 10: Position stack — add multiple players to fill one position of need

If you’ve learned anything from this exercise, it should be that free agency can be like throwing darts at a dartboard. You really don’t know where they are going to hit. So listen to my final rule and position stack. Add multiple players at one position of need. 

These teams did that with some effectiveness in the draft and free agency in the last two years, just don’t be the 2024 Falcons who drafted Michael Penis Jr. in the first round and signed Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180 million. 

Notable position stacking in the last two offseasons

• 2025 Patriots pass rush: Harold Landry/K’Lavon Chaisson/Milton Williams
• 2025 Falcons pass rush: James Pearce Jr./Jalon Walker/Leonard Floyd
• 2025 Bears offensive line: Joe Thuney/Jonah Jackson/Drew Dalman
• 2024 Eagles cornerback: Quinyon Mitchell/Cooper DeJean
• 2024 Rams defensive line: Jared Verse/Braden Fiske
• 2024 Vikings pass rush: Jonathan Greenard/Dallas Turner/Andrew Van Ginkel

That’s it! No more rules. I lied. One more rule! As a fan, don’t overreact if your team won or lost free agency.

Vince Young declared the Eagles had a ‘Dream Team’ in 2011 after bringing in Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Ronnie Brown, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, plus himself. They finished 8-8. So much for that. 

If that doesn’t kill your buzz, I don’t know what will.