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Pamela Maldonado
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Pamela Maldonado
Sports Betting Analyst
- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Multiple Authors
Free agency is a unique time. Some NFL teams come out spending, others poach a player here or there and some remain mostly on the sidelines. Depending on the magnitude of moves, odds can shift one way or another.
With the majority of player movement behind us until the NFL draft next month, we wanted to look at which teams have improved the most so far this offseason and which ones shifted in the wrong direction.
Betting analysts Matt Bowen and Pamela Maldonado break down which teams have had the best and worst offseason thus far and offer their tips for betting them.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Teams that improved the most
Tennessee Titans
Maldonado: It’s March, so I’m not saying the Titans suddenly became a contender this offseason, but they did get better in a few meaningful ways.
Let’s start with the obvious defensive problem from last year: the secondary. The Titans allowed 28 points per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Opposing quarterbacks were way too comfortable attacking downfield. Adding cornerbacks Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott directly addresses that. Taylor brings a physical, aggressive style that fits what this defense wants to do, while Flott gives Tennessee a legit outside corner who can create disruption at the catch point. Basically, the coverage unit should be far more stable than it was in 2025.
Plus, swapping DT T’Vondre Sweat for DE Jermaine Johnson also makes sense for a defense that needed more edge pressure, giving Tennessee a proven pass rusher instead of another interior run defender.
Up front, DE John Franklin-Myers is a sneaky important addition. DT Jeffery Simmons was often double-teamed last season because there wasn’t consistent interior pressure next to him. Franklin-Myers changes that. If the Titans can generate more pressure inside, the entire defense benefits.
Offensively, the focus is clearly on helping Cam Ward take the next step. Wan’Dale Robinson gives the offense a true slot option and a reliable short-area target, which should help on third downs, where Tennessee converted just 32% of opportunities last year.
How to approach betting them: None of these moves scream blockbuster, but the Titans needed a higher floor across the roster, and these free agency moves helped them get closer to that. Their season win total is set at 6.5 juiced to the over (-150), but two truths can be had: that improvements were made and the under is still the likely scenario. Perhaps the draft can flip that switch.
Las Vegas Raiders
Bowen: With a new coach in Klint Kubiak, plus a massive amount of money spent to upgrade the roster, Vegas fits here. And edge rusher Maxx Crosby is still a Raider (for now). Newly acquired center Tyler Linderbaum is one of the league’s best, and he’ll play a critical role in managing protections for the anticipated No. 1 pick, quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders also signed wide receiver Jalen Nailor, an ascending player, in addition to linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean. Edge rusher Kwity Paye landed with the Raiders, too. A lot of upgrades here.
How to approach betting them: Mendoza has the traits to win from the pocket, and the play-action concepts in Kubiak’s system will create more defined throws for the rookie. Plus, we will see the skill set of running back Ashton Jeanty this season in Kubiak’s outside zone scheme. Now, I’m not tagging the Raiders as an AFC West contender in ’26, but with the free agent additions and a new QB with pro-ready ability, I would think the Raiders can win six football games. So let’s take over 5.5 wins (-130).
Teams trending in the wrong direction
Kansas City Chiefs
1:12
Schefter: CB Jaylen Watson goes from Chiefs to Rams
Adam Schefter reports that the Rams continue to load up on cornerbacks with the addition of Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs.
Bowen: The Chiefs made a splash move on Day 1 of free agency when they signed running back Kenneth Walker III. He gives that backfield more juice and explosive-play ability. But I look at a defense that traded away star cornerback Trent McDuffie, while corner Jaylen Watson, safety Bryan Cook and linebacker Leo Chenal signed elsewhere. Plus, Patrick Mahomes is coming off a major knee injury. It’s fair to have some questions after free agency here.
How to approach betting them: This is still a really good football team, led by one of the league’s best coaches in Andy Reid. But in an ultra-competitive AFC West, I could see KC at 9-8 or 10-7. I’m taking under 10.5 wins (-125).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Maldonado: As a Jaguars fan, I hate to say it, but Jacksonville got a little worse this offseason. Losing RB Travis Etienne Jr. hurts. He recorded 1,107 rushing yards last season and had the ability to create something when a play broke down. Devin Lloyd’s departure thins out a linebacker group that had its moments, and with CB Greg Newsome II walking out the door, one of the better coverage units in the league gets weaker.
The additions feel more like depth moves than impact upgrades. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a fine rotational running back, but he’s not raising the ceiling. It’s March, so this isn’t panic mode, and the draft could help. But right now, Jacksonville looks more like a team protecting the cap than pushing the roster forward.
How to approach betting them: The lean this early is under 9.5 on the season win total. The Jags jumped from preseason skepticism last year to a 13-4 division winner, without a dominant roster. The pass rush was middle of the pack, the run game graded 26th, and the defense leaned heavily on coverage to hold things together. Subtract the players mentioned without adding impact replacements, and that’s not how teams build on a 13-win season.
