The Seattle Seahawks haven’t tasted defeat since Nov. 16, winning their final seven regular season games and a pair of playoff contests. They’re one victory away from a double-digit streak and, more importantly, the second championship in franchise history.
Seattle attempts to capture its first title since the 2013 season when it squares off against the New England Patriots at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium. The Seahawks trounced the Denver Broncos 43-8 to win Super Bowl 48 but failed in their bid to repeat as they were edged 28-24 by the Patriots the following year.
New England, which is in the midst of a six-game winning streak, lost to Denver in the AFC Championship Game the next season but then made three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, winning twice to raise its total to six titles. A victory over the Seahawks would break the tie between the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for most Super Bowl championships.
For Sunday’s matchup, top sportsbooks have set the passing yards prop for New England’s Drake Maye at 224.5 yards and the receiving yards prop for Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 91.5.
Before you play a side on Maye, Smith-Njigba or any player prop for Sunday’s Super Bowl 60, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +1635 on his last 113 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.
Hunter Henry receiving yards -12.5 vs. AJ Barner (-116)
I really like Henry in this matchup. The one weakness the Seahawks have had all season in terms of their pass defense has been against tight ends. Seattle has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the position, and it’s the team’s lowest DVOA score as it ranks 16th per FTN.
Henry is second on the Patriots in first-read share over the regular season and playoffs at 18%. Splitting the majority pass snaps in the slot and in-line, he’ll face a Seahawks defense that’s allowed 103 combined yards per game out of those alignments per FantasyPros.
On the flip side, Barner’s production has waned with only 27 total yards over the last three games. The Michigan product only possesses an 11.6% first-read rate this season and despite tight ends producing above average against the Patriots, I don’t see this as a plus matchup for Barner.
Barner lines up in-line on 82% of pass snaps, with 95% of his receiving yards coming from the alignment. The Patriots graded very well against in-line targets, only allowing 24 yards per game – the 11th-lowest mark in the NFL per Fantasy Points.
When it comes down to it, I expect the Patriots to have to lean in more to the passing game in this one. I’d bet this “spread” up to -13.5 for Henry.
Mack Hollins Over 25.5 receiving yards
I do feel that Hollins’ yards line is undervalued. The veteran receiver comes into the Super Bowl having cleared this line in nine of his last 11 games.
He’s without an injury designation, so I expect him back to his 70-75% snap share on pass plays. Over the last eight games in which all Patriots pass catchers were fully healthy, Hollins is first on the team with 380 yards, second in targets (40 to Stefon Diggs’ 41) and first in yards per route run among the starters (2.03). It’s not the best matchup against the Seahawks’ stout secondary, but he should see more of Josh Jobe than All-Pro Devon Witherspoon on the outside.
I have Hollins conservatively at five targets, with upside given the brutal matchup the Patriots will have on the ground, as well as the potential for a pass-happy game script. I’d bet this to Over 26.5 yards.
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