It turned out to be a dangerous Week 2 for NFL quarterbacks, with four picking up injuries that could cause them to miss Week 3 and potentially longer. The biggest blow came to the Bengals, as Joe Burrow is set to be sidelined for the majority of the season with a toe injury, making this the third time in his six-year career he has been limited to no more than 10 games played.
In steps Jake Browning, last found completing 71.5% of his passes while going 4-3 as the starter filling in for Burrow back in 2023. Despite that success, there is an obvious step down in quarterback for the Bengals, but how should bettors adjust their projections when deciding whether to bet or fade the Bengals in Week 3?
To answer that question, we turn to spread power ratings. These measure how much better or worse a team is than average and allow us to create a spread for the game on a neutral field that we can then adjust to account for home field advantage and get the spread we believe should be offered by sportsbooks for this game. Where that number significantly differs from the market provides a potential betting opportunity depending on the confidence of our ratings.
A quarterback of Burrow’s quality would typically result in a major downgrade to a team of up to six points, but we have a few mitigating factors here. First, the Bengals haven’t been overly impressive with Burrow at quarterback recently, disappointing with a 9-8 record last year and barely beating the Browns in Week 1. That led to a dead average zero rating prior to Burrow’s injury. Second, Browning’s quality play marks him as one of the better backups in the league, so the ratings reduction isn’t as stark as it would be if Burrow had been starting for many other teams. And third, the Bengals still have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the passing game, so it’s tough to drop them down from a zero rating five or six points and put them alongside the worst teams in the league. With that all considered, I’m moving the Bengals down to a -3 rating and taking them over the Dolphins, Jets and Giants on a neutral field.Â
There are plenty of other quarterback injuries that should factor into our ratings, which we’ll get into below.
Week 3 power ratings
| BAL | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| BUF | 7 | 6.5 | 7 |
| PHI | 6 | 6.5 | 7 |
| GB | 5 | 5 | 3.5 |
| LAC | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| LAR | 3.5 | 2 | 1 |
| DET | 3 | 2 | 2.5 |
| KC | 2.5 | 3 | 7 |
| WAS | 2 | 2 | 1.5 |
| DEN | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| IND | 1 | -1.5 | -2 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| ATL | 0 | -1 | -1.5 |
| HOU | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| SEA | -1 | -1.5 | -1 |
| MIN | -1 | 1 | 1 |
| LV | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| DAL | -1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| CHI | -1.5 | -1 | 0 |
| PIT | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 |
| NE | -1.5 | -2 | -2 |
| CIN | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ | -3.5 | -1 | -2 |
| MIA | -3.5 | -2.5 | -2 |
| NYG | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| TEN | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| NO | -4 | -7 | -7.5 |
| CAR | -5.5 | -5 | -4 |
| CLE | -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 |
First, an existing quarterback injury: We had the 49ers as a zero-rated team with Mac Jones at quarterback, which led to a power ratings spread of 49ers -5.5 in New Orleans. Final score, 26-21. I’ve moved the Saints’ rating up after a second straight game looking better than we expected, but that initial adjustment from Brock Purdy to Jones seems accurate.
I’ve dropped the Jets 2.5 points after Justin Fields played one of the worst games of his career and then suffered a concussion. Tyrod Taylor is a capable backup quarterback, but my Jets rating was aggressive from the start, and there’s still no reason to believe the defense is going to pull its weight. The market moved the Jets-Buccaneers spread two points from the lookahead, so my adjustment doesn’t seem out of place.
I haven’t adjusted the Commanders yet, with Jayden Daniels a toss-up to play in Week 3. Marcus Mariota is an experienced veteran backup who played well in relief of Daniels last year, but his two games came against the Panthers and a checked-out Cowboys team in Week 18. The market has currently adjusted 2.5 points from the lookahead line, and my ratings drop from Daniels to Mariota will likely be 4.5 points, which would take Washington down to a -3 at the same level as the Bengals. That would make the Commanders about a pick ’em against the Raiders on Sunday.
Finally, there is the case of Carson Wentz, who will become the first quarterback to make starts for six different franchises in six years. Wentz’s biggest issue in that stretch has been turnovers, but he was able to have success in Frank Reich’s offense back in 2021 with the Colts. Kevin O’Connell is about as good an offensive coach as they come, and the hope is he can put Wentz in the best position to succeed. We also have to look at the play of J.J. McCarthy, who has not looked like an NFL quarterback for seven of his eight quarters on the field (even granting he played some of Sunday night’s game with his injury). I can’t in good faith make no adjustment moving from a starting quarterback to Carson Wentz, but it’s possible the dip is minimal. I’ve only moved the Vikings down to -1.
Non-injury ratings of note: I’m taking my advice from before the season and being more aggressive with adjustments in order to catch up to a team’s true rating quicker when I think it’s warranted, and for that reason I’ve moved the Colts up to +1 already. What Daniel Jones was able to do to the Denver defense as a passer was incredibly impressive, and the Colts already look like the best team in the division. I want to drop the Cowboys further based on how bad the defense played, but they’re one team where the kicker has to be factored into the power rating, and Brandon Aubrey plus the QB-WR-WR edge means they can only go so low. I’m one week away from being aggressive with my Dolphins downgrade, but like I mentioned earlier, I’m already giving the Saints a significant boost with Spencer Rattler playing well against what I think are two strong defenses in the 49ers and Cardinals.
Full Week 3 projected lines
| Dolphins | Bills | -12.5 | -13 | |
| Falcons | Panthers | +5 | +3.5 | CAR OL injuries could explain market move |
| Bengals | Vikings | -3 | -4 | Backup QB battle but MIN has edge on defense |
| Packers | Browns | +8 | +7.5 | |
| Texans | Jaguars | -1 | -2.5 | Is HOU better than JAC? Market says so |
| Rams | Eagles | -3.5 | -4 | LAR rising quickly in ratings but first tough test |
| Colts | Titans | +3.5 | +3 | IND still overvalued despite big adjustment |
| Jets | Buccaneers | -7 | -5.5 | |
| Steelers | Patriots | +1 | -1 | |
| Raiders | Commanders | -3.5 | -5 | WAS drops to -0.5 with Mariota at QB |
| Broncos | Chargers | -2.5 | -4 | Market might be too low on LAC still |
| Saints | Seahawks | -7.5 | -4.5 | Aggressive upgrade on NO means time to buy |
| Cowboys | Bears | -1.5 | -2.5 | |
| Cardinals | 49ers | -1.5 | -2.5 | |
| Chiefs | Giants | +6 | +5 | |
| Lions | Ravens | -5.5 | -6 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
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