We had our first down week in quite some time, as I went 5-8 against the spread in Week 8. I did not see the New York Jets rebounding and defeating the Bengals in Cincinnati or the Miami Dolphins getting up off the mat and upsetting the Falcons in Atlanta. Favorites went 11-2 ATS, which is the best mark in the NFL since Week 16 in 1985.
Will last week cause me to lean more towards favorites? We’ll find out together. This week, we get another edition of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, Tyler Shough makes his first career start against one of the best teams in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers looks to bounce back against a red-hot Indianapolis Colts squad. Also, Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans is my sneaky pick to be the game of the week.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.Â
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 17-18
Overall ATS record: 68-53
Straight up record: 83-37-1
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I heard it asked on sports radio in Nashville multiple times this week if an interim head coach has ever been fired. The Titans lost to the Colts by 24 points on Sunday, which marked the sixth double-digit loss for Tennessee on the season, and then, the team decided to trade away its best cornerback in Roger McCreary to the Los Angeles Rams.
That leaves Jalyn Armour-Davis, Darrell Baker Jr., Marcus Harris, Samuel Womack III and Micah Robinson as the Tennessee corners that will have to cover Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Yikes. The Titans have covered the spread just ONCE this season according to the numbers I use. Chargers win this week by double digits again.Â
The pick:Â Chargers -9.5
Projected score: Chargers 30-14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:Â Fubo, try for free)
This is not a good spot for the Vikings. Not only are they on the road for the second consecutive week, but they are traveling to face the Lions, who are coming off their bye, and have to start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback.
If we are being completely honest, McCarthy hasn’t looked like an NFL quarterback for seven of his eight quarters played. Yes, the comeback against the Chicago Bears was fun, but the loss to the Falcons was a disaster. Overall, McCarthy is averaging 152.5 passing yards per game, and has scored three touchdowns compared to four turnovers in his two starts.Â
To make matters worse, this Brian Flores defense has been gashed by opposing quarterbacks over the past couple weeks. Jalen Hurts registered a perfect passer rating against Minnesota a couple weeks ago, and we all saw what Justin Herbert did to them last Thursday night. The Vikings have allowed 32.5 points per game over the last two contests, after allowing just 19.4 points per game in the first five games of the season.Â
I don’t have to convince you that the Lions are good. They once again appear to be one of the best teams in the NFC, and are 4-0 ATS when favored this season.Â
The pick:Â Lions -8.5
Projected score:Â Lions 29-13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The Patriots have made a habit of blowing out lesser opponents at home, defeating the Carolina Panthers by 29 points in Week 4, and then the Cleveland Browns by 19 last Sunday. The Falcons on the other hand are truly Jekyll and Hyde.Â
Their three wins this season came against teams that each won at least 12 games last year, while three of their four losses came to teams that missed the playoffs in 2024. Atlanta will get blown out by the Panthers, then beat the Buffalo Bills by 10 points, followed by a 24-point loss to the Dolphins.
Kirk Cousins was horrific in his first start of the season, while Michael Penix Jr. is on the mend after suffering that knee injury vs. the San Francisco 49ers. It’s hard to back an inconsistent team on the road that averages just 17.1 points per game. Give me the No. 2 rushing defense in the NFL to contain Bijan Robinson, and extend New England’s win streak to six.Â
The pick:Â Patriots -5.5
Projected score: Patriots 23-13
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:Â Fubo, try for free)
I wasn’t afraid to lay 14.5 points with the Colts vs. the Titans last week, and I’m not afraid to back the Rams coming off a bye here. Tyler Shough is going to make his first NFL start on the road vs. a defense that has allowed seven or fewer points in back-to-back games, and fewer than 10 points in six out of the last 11 games dating back to 2024.Â
It’s a big number, but this is simply one of the best teams in the NFL vs. one of the worst teams in the NFL that’s starting a rookie quarterback against a talented defense.Â
The pick:Â Rams -14.5
Projected score:Â Rams 26-10
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream:Â Fubo, try for free)
Some were expecting regression from the Commanders in 2025, but I wasn’t expecting this. Jayden Daniels has already missed three games due to injury, although he is expected to play this week, while Terry McLaurin will miss his fifth game of the season due to his quad issue. Another surprise for me is how good this Seahawks team is — especially when it comes to playing on the road.
Seattle is 3-0 on the road this season, and 9-0 on the road dating back to last year. Both of Seattle’s two losses this year have come at home. Sam Darnold is averaging an NFL-high 9.1 yards per attempt this season, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be an MVP candidate. Despite being on a bye last week, JSN enters Week 9 leading the league with 819 yards receiving. He has gone three straight games with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, which is tied for the second-longest such streak since 1970.Â
Even in the games Daniels has suited up for, I don’t think Washington has been very good. Seattle has won and covered in five out of its last six games, so I’m rolling with the Seahawks.
The pick:Â Seahawks -3
Projected score:Â Seahawks 28-23
Other Week 9 picks
Ravens (-7.5) 30-20 over Dolphins
Packers 23-20 over Panthers (+13.5)
Broncos (+1.5) 24-20 over Texans
Bears (-2.5) 33-28 over Bengals
Colts (-3) 21-17 over Steelers
49ers (-2.5) 18-13 over Giants
Jaguars (-3) 24-16 over Raiders
Bills (+1.5) 27-24 over Chiefs
Cowboys (-2.5) 30-27 over Cardinals
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