NHL Playoffs First-Round Takeaways: Tkachuk, Oilers & Much More – The Hockey Writers – Commentary

With last night’s Game 7 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens in the rearview mirror, the first round of the 2026 playoffs is officially complete. There were quite a few surprises, as well as quite a few disappointments. What stood out most with the second round already underway?

Stars/Mikko Rantanen Disappoint

I figured we might as well combine the Dallas Stars and Mikko Rantanen. It’s not a surprise that the Stars fell in six games to the Minnesota Wild, but how they lost was quite disappointing. They were outscored 14-4 at five-on-five, and while some of it was rotten shooting luck, they also had a tough time generating quality looks.

The Stars shot just three percent at five-on-five against the Wild, but they also generated just 2.25 expected goals per 60 minutes. The Wild deserve credit for limiting the Stars at five-on-five, but Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque were the only players who generated consistent looks at that game state.

Rantanen was a perfect encapsulation of the Stars’ struggles at five-on-five. While he did total seven points in six games, only one of those came at five-on-five, and it was an assist. He had the worst expected goals share (xG%) among Stars skaters at 35.5 percent. Perhaps he was playing through an injury, because that’s the only logical explanation for his rough series. His not playing up to his caliber was a significant reason the Stars bowed out early.

The Wall of St. Paul

One reason the Stars couldn’t find the back of the net often enough at five-on-five was the play of Jesper Wallstedt. The Wild opted to give him the nod over Filip Gustavsson, and he certainly delivered. He finished the series with a sparkling .970 save percentage at five-on-five and .924 SV% at all strengths.

The bad news is that a .970 SV% is not sustainable going forward, and we already saw a hard regression in the Wild’s 9-6 Game 1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche. That’s not to say Wallstedt will turn into a pumpkin for the rest of Round 2, but this will be a much tougher challenge. Still, he was one of the biggest surprises in the first round and helped the Wild win their first playoff series in 11 years.

Brady Tkachuk Held Without a Point

The Senators couldn’t buy a goal in their first-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes, which is why they got swept. Brady Tkachuk not totaling a single point is part of the reason why the Senators couldn’t make it much of a series.

Tkachuk wasn’t awful against the Hurricanes. He finished with a 51.76 xG%, and unlike Rantanen, he was generating chances at five-on-five. Tkachuk finished with seven shots on goal, seven scoring chances, and five high-danger chances at five-on-five. He just couldn’t find the back of the net.

Still, it was a disappointment seeing Tkachuk not record a single point. He’s a great player and has the reputation of being someone who’s built for playoff hockey. A four-game series shouldn’t change anyone’s opinion of him as a player, but it goes to show that just because a player has a certain reputation, it doesn’t guarantee anything in the playoffs.

Penguins’ Offense Went M.I.A.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were one of the highest-scoring, most run-and-gun teams during the regular season, but they met their match in the Philadelphia Flyers. The Penguins averaged 2.90 expected goals per 60 during the regular season, ranking them fourth in the NHL, but they averaged just 2.53 per 60 in their six games against the Flyers.

To the Flyers’ credit, they had been playing great hockey to close the regular season, especially defensively. That carried over into the first round against the Penguins, and they took advantage. It’ll be interesting to see where the Penguins go from here. They haven’t won a playoff round in nearly a decade, and they need to get younger. GM Kyle Dubas has some interesting decisions to make in the months ahead.

Oilers Ran Out of Gas

I’ll admit ir. I had the Oilers defeating the Anaheim Ducks in five games. Getting eliminated in six games was the most stunning result of the first round. The Oilers had some concerns heading into the playoffs, but they were playing better hockey to close the regular season. Unfortunately, those concerns rear their ugly heads again.

Whether it was Connor Ingram or Tristan Jarry, the Oilers couldn’t buy a save. They finished the playoffs with a team save percentage of .866. It’s tough to win a game, let alone an entire series, with that kind of goaltending. The Oilers’ defense didn’t exactly make life easy on their goaltenders, either; they allowed 2.71 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five.

It’s clear the Oilers didn’t have it this season, so an interesting summer lies ahead. They need to retool their blue line and need to find a solution in net. Connor McDavid has just two years left on his contract, so the clock is ticking to get back to the Stanley Cup level of the previous two seasons.

The Ducks’ Defense

The Ducks came into the playoffs with one of the leakiest defenses in the NHL, but you wouldn’t have known it by the way they played against the Oilers. They outshot and out-chanced the Oilers most nights and only allowed 2.41 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

The Ducks have a somewhat similar matchup in Round 2 against the Vegas Golden Knights in that the Golden Knights’ goaltending was suspect against the Utah Mammoth. I’d say that series is a slight lean toward the Golden Knights, but the Ducks have a legitimate shot at making a surprise run to the Western Conference Final.

The Lightning’s Decline

At this point, it’s fair to start wondering if the Lightning’s Cup contention window is closing. They’ve lost four straight first-round series, and this time, it was against a team that was worse than them on paper.

Brandon Hagel was an absolute menace throughout the first round. He totaled six goals and eight points and was the reason the Lightning managed to get to a Game 7. Jake Guentzel was excellent as well, as he totaled two goals and eight points. As for the rest of the Lightning’s top players? Well…

Nikita Kucherov totaled just one goal, while Brayden Point also scored just one goal, his lone point of the series. Aside from Game 6, Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled. He finished the series with a save percentage of .897, the fourth straight year he’s finished the playoffs with a SV% below .900.

The Lightning are beginning to remind me of where the Penguins were five to six years ago. The Penguins were still a dominant five-on-five team, but their age was beginning to catch up to them, and they couldn’t advance past the first round of the playoffs. The Lightning might be in the same position.

What will the second round bring us? The Wild and Avalanche already provided a thriller in Game 1 on Sunday evening. Will the Carolina Hurricanes sweep again? The next two weeks or so should be plenty entertaining, just as the first round was.

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