Forwards are generally more impactful than defensemen, but that’s beginning to change. The first wave of blueliners to lead that charge were Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, but they’re not the only ones anymore. That’s made for one of the deepest Norris Trophy races in quite some time. Let’s look at some of the top defensemen in the NHL this season and how they stack up in the Norris race.
Tier 1
Cale Makar
Cale Makar, as is generally tradition, is having a monster season for the Colorado Avalanche. He’s totaled 20 goals and 75 points in 73 games and has some terrific underlying metrics. Makar has an overall net rating of 28.66, ranked first among all defensemen league-wide, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
The Avalanche have an expected goals share (xG%) of 54.2 percent with Makar on the ice at five-on-five, and they’re outscoring teams 72-41. He’s been one of the most efficient five-on-five scoring defensemen in the NHL, and he plays in all situations. He logs the most difficult minutes among Avalanche blueliners, so he’s likely heading for another Norris Trophy nomination in the next couple of weeks.
Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard may be a polarizing figure on social media, but he’s having an outrageous season for the Edmonton Oilers. He has 21 goals and 91 points in 80 games, which are both career-highs. Many of his underlying metrics rank among the best for defensemen in the NHL.
Bouchard has an overall net rating of 25.12, ranking third among NHL defensemen. He’s averaging 1.81 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, slightly better than the 1.7 Makar is averaging. The Oilers have an xG% of 56.23 percent and a goal differential of +16 with him on the ice. I imagine that latter number would be even better if the Oilers had any semblance of competent goaltending. While Bouchard might not be the favorite, he should earn a nomination for the Norris. He has been that good this season.
Zach Werenski
Zach Werenski finished just above a point per game last season and will do so again this season. He was a Norris finalist last year and could be one again this season. The Blue Jackets have an xG% of 55.46 with him on the ice, with that number dropping to 48.65 percent when he’s off the ice. They also have a goal differential of +16 in his five-on-five minutes.
Werenski has an overall net rating of 23.22, ranking fifth among NHL defensemen. The Blue Jackets are a better team than they were a season ago. They’d probably still be competitive without him, but he raises their floor and elevates their ceiling. Like Makar, he plays in all situations and logs the most difficult minutes among Blue Jackets blueliners.
Lane Hutson
So much for being 5-foot-9, eh? The reason Lane Hutson fell in the draft was due to his size, but that has not even remotely been an issue for him during his young NHL career. He has had quite a successful sophomore season in the NHL, totaling 78 points in 81 games.
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Hutson has been the driving force on the Canadiens’ blue line. He has an overall net rating of 25.73, ranking him second among NHL defensemen. The Canadiens have an xG% of 54.64 percent in Hutson’s five-on-five minutes, as well as an outrageous goal differential of +37 (92-55). You could easily argue that he should be a Norris finalist. He’s been that good, too.
Rasmus Dahlin
Rasmus Dahlin rounds out the first tier of defensemen, as he’s been a significant factor in the Buffalo Sabres ending their decade-and-a-half playoff drought. Dahlin has 19 goals and 72 points in 76 games while posting terrific underlying numbers.
The Sabres have an xG% of 52.99 percent with Dahlin on the ice at five-on-five, and they’ve outscored their opponents 75-53. He has an overall net rating of 20.9, ranking him seventh among all defensemen league-wide. He’s always been one of the better defensemen in the NHL, and he should now get some recognition in Norris voting with the Sabres emerging as a threat in the Eastern Conference.
Tier 2
Quinn Hughes
Quinn Hughes would be in Tier 1, but the start of his season with the Vancouver Canucks did not go all that well. Still, it’s hard to discount what he’s done since the Canucks traded him to the Minnesota Wild. He has 53 points in 48 games with the Wild, a pace of 91 points over 82 games.
The Wild have an xG% of 55.39 percent with Hughes on the ice, as well as a goal differential of +9. He’s been one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL, with his offensive net rating of 21.23 ranking second to Bouchard. His overall net rating is outside the top 10, and his Canucks stint will likely prevent him from being a finalist, but he could still finish in the top five of voting.
Moritz Seider
The Detroit Red Wings just completed one of the more epic regular-season collapses we’ve seen in recent history. That is no fault of Moritz Seider, however. He may not have the counting totals as some of the previously mentioned defensemen, but he still has 10 goals and 60 points in 80 games.
The Red Wings have been a noticeably different team with and without Seider on the ice. They have an xG% of 55.86 percent in his five-on-five minutes and have outscored their opponents 71-53. Without him on the ice, their xG% drops to 45.02 percent, and their actual goals share drops to 38.93 percent. He has an overall net rating of 21.1 percent, ranked sixth among all defensemen. Who knows what position the Red Wings would be in without Seider, but it probably wouldn’t be pretty.
Matthew Schaefer
Matthew Schaefer will be the runaway favorite to win the Calder Trophy, but he will likely get plenty of love in Norris voting, too. Schaefer has 23 goals and 59 points in 81 games, and the Islanders’ on-ice/off-ice metrics with Schaefer aren’t all that different from Seider’s.
With Schaefer on the ice, the Islanders have an xG% of 50.1 percent and a goal differential of +15 (70-55). Without him on the ice, their xG% drops to 45.9 percent. And they have an actual goals share of just 42.29 percent. I can’t say I recall the last time an 18-year-old rookie defenseman had this kind of impact on his team. He won’t win the Norris, and he probably won’t be a finalist, but you could make the argument that Schaefer should be in the top five.
Erik Karlsson
Reports of Erik Karlsson’s demise may have been premature. He’s found new life under head coach Dan Muse, and although he won’t be a Norris finalist, he’s been one of the best defensemen in the NHL. Karlsson has 15 goals and 66 points in 74 games, and during a stretch of hockey following the Olympics, he carried the Penguins on his back while Sidney Crosby was out with an injury.
Karlsson has an offensive net rating of 15.2, which ranks ninth among all blueliners this season. The issue with him is that he struggles defensively, which is why he’s not in Tier 1, but he deserves some recognition for the season he’s had. The Penguins have a goal differential of +21 in Karlsson’s five-on-five minutes, and he’s played a significant role in the team’s resurgence.
Jake Sanderson
One beneficiary of the Red Wings’ collapse has been the Ottawa Senators, who are playoff-bound for the second consecutive season. Jake Sanderson would be higher on this list had he not missed 13 games due to injury, because he’s had quite the impact for the Senators.
Sanderson has 14 goals and 54 points in 67 games, a pace of 17 goals and 66 points over 82 games. The Senators have an xG% of 55.9 percent in his five-on-five minutes, as well as a goal differential of +12. He’s been one of the team’s best shot-suppressing defensemen, and he plays difficult minutes and all situations. He would be a legit Norris finalist candidate had he come close to playing 82 games.
The Modern NHL Defenseman Is Evolving
This Norris Trophy race is one for the ages, and it wouldn’t be a shock if this becomes the norm moving forward. There are more game-breaking defensemen than there were just a few years ago, and there will be more to come up through the ranks as the game and position continue to change.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, PuckIQ
