Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen: Which QB has the edge in AFC showdown?

Every NFL season, fans and pundits alike rush to circle one specific matchup on the fall calendar: Buffalo Bills versus Kansas City Chiefs. The matchup of AFC heavyweights has become arguably the must-see showdown (4:25 p.m. on CBS and streaming on  Paramount+) of the regular season (and sometimes postseason) slate. And there’s one primary reason for it: the quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

While the two superstars don’t share an NFL division, they do share the honor of winning MVP for AFC powerhouses, and they’ve made a habit of meeting in high-stakes contests along the way. This Sunday’s next edition of the Bills-Chiefs clash (4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+) marks the 10th different game between the high-octane signal-callers, including playoffs.

Which star quarterback is off to a better start in 2025? Which one is best equipped to get the victory at Highmark Stadium this time around? We studied the tape and the numbers to break down whether Allen or Mahomes has the edge going into the rematch of the 2024 AFC championship, accounting for everything from dual-threat potential to late-game composure:

The overview: Allen vs. Mahomes

Allen and Mahomes have been remarkably similar in terms of overall production over the course of their illustrious careers. The former has 312 total touchdowns, including playoffs, while Mahomes has 333, with both quarterbacks also leading at least 80 career wins. Their 2025 marks are perhaps their most comparable yet, with both veterans turning in top 10 production as dual threats.

What’s notable — and not clearly visible in the stat lines — is that they’re currently on slightly different trajectories. Mahomes opened the year dragging the Chiefs’ injury-plagued offense along with his legs, but he’s turned a major corner since October, with three scoring passes in three straight games and a 70% completion rate in his last four. All in all, the Chiefs’ star is off to a much better start than a year ago, when he endured uncharacteristic turnover streaks while trying to compensate for Kansas City’s injuries.

Allen, meanwhile, started this year fairly strong, with seven touchdown passes and just one interception during Buffalo’s 4-0 start. He’s since cooled a bit, totaling five turnovers in the Bills’ last four games, which have also been marred by poor defensive support. Allen got a major boost from James Cook’s rushing explosion in Buffalo’s last win, but he’s remained the team’s top playmaker.

What else can these numbers — and other advanced statistics — tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface of these early-season marks? Let’s proceed.

Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.

Accuracy

Advanced stats indicate Allen is throwing into tight windows a bit more than Mahomes this year, which makes his slightly better completion rate (68%) a touch more impressive. That probably speaks more to Kansas City’s offensive designs, however, with Mahomes and coach Andy Reid teaming up to hit the Chiefs’ array of versatile weapons (i.e., Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster) in space. We know that Allen specializes in “wow” throws, squeezing lasers into close quarters, but Mahomes is more accurate for his career (66% vs. 63%) and has also thrown 85 more passes than Allen this season.

Edge: Mahomes

Ball control

If there’s one area where Allen has struggled, it’s protecting the rock, though he’s often offset his riskier tendencies with timely home runs. So far this year, he has five turnovers in seven games, whereas Mahomes has four in eight. Now, Mahomes also likes to uncork some backyard-style action, which can lend itself to acrobatic (and riskier) passes, but he’s also been better at holding onto the ball for his career; Mahomes has 104 career turnovers in 141 games, including playoffs, while Allen has 121 in 92.

Edge: Mahomes

Big-play magic

Mahomes was once the king of the splash play, surging onto the NFL scene with a bombs-away approach. He’s since become much more of a death-by-a-thousand-cuts point guard, as evidenced during Kansas City’s last two Super Bowl bids. Yet he’s also pivoted a bit more to his early-career form to open 2025, posting a deep-throw rate (10.6%) nearly equivalent to that of the notoriously aggressive Allen (10.7%). Still, Allen is averaging a bit more in the yards-per-pass category (7.9 to 7.4), and he’s got three runs of 20+ yards as a scrambler. This is much closer than it was, say, a year ago, but we’ll give Allen the slight nod.

Edge: Allen

Rushing impact

Historically, this is very much Allen’s deal, as the big man eclipsed 500 rushing yards in six of his first seven NFL seasons. Mahomes, by the way, has never been shy about taking off when needed, but prior to 2025, he functioned more as a pesky crunch-time scrambler than a constant rushing threat. This fall, he’s taken off a ton to counteract either iffy protection, an unsteady backfield or banged-up receiving corps; he’s on pace to approach 600 yards, which would be a career high. Allen is still a little more likely to lean on his legs, however, with 49 carries in seven games (or about seven carries per contest).

Edge: Allen

Situational poise

This year, Allen has been boom or bust when facing the blitz, with scattershot accuracy (59%) but splashy results when he finds his man, averaging 9.5 yards per throw with four scores and one pick. Mahomes, meanwhile, has endured a dramatic dip in production when matched up with extra pressure; his rating drops from 108.1 to 89.3, and he averages just 5.7 yards per throw. Allen also has a pair of game-winning drives this year. But who are we kidding? Mahomes is the definition of inevitable at the quarterback position. His Hall of Fame resume demands an unmatched level of respect when it comes to coming through when he’s needed most.

Edge: Mahomes

Home vs. road splits

This might be the toughest call of them all. Allen has been a different quarterback at home versus on the road to open 2025: In the cozy confines of Highmark Stadium, No. 17 boasts a 115.2 rating with nine touchdowns and two picks, but just an 82.5 rating with three scores and two picks away from home. Mahomes, meanwhile, has experienced an even more dramatic shift: He’s all-star material at home, with 14 scores and three picks for a 113.2 rating, but he’s completing just 64% of throws with an 89 rating outside of Arrowhead Stadium. Still, the Chiefs quarterback holds the win-loss edge, boasting a 2-1 career record against Allen in Buffalo. He’s also been slightly more efficient than Allen when matched up with the Bills in Buffalo.

Edge: Mahomes

Head-to-head history

The face-to-face matchups between Allen and Mahomes have really come down to the magnitude of the stage: Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season, while Mahomes is a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs. Their numbers have fluctuated accordingly, as Mahomes has been just OK against the Bills before the postseason, with 10 touchdowns and seven picks to go with an 85.9 rating, but downright stellar when it comes time for the playoffs. Fortunately for Allen and Co., this game is in October.

Edge: Allen, for this game

The final verdict

The tally from our seven categories is as follows:

1. Patrick Mahomes (4)
2. Josh Allen (3)

If you look back at our breakdown of this quarterback matchup from the 2024 AFC title game, you can see how much the postseason influences expectations for the Allen-Mahomes showdown; the Chiefs’ three-time champion is undeniably the more reliable playoff playmaker. Here, however, we have a near-even draw. Both vets are elevating their respective offenses, and both have been tasked with masking other team flaws, such as porous defense or bruised lineups. History suggests this is the time — literally, at midseason, in Buffalo, away from the bright lights of playoff expectations — Allen is poised to take down his AFC rival, especially if he continues to get dynamic help from a James Cook-led backfield. But Mahomes’ upward trajectory for a team with a deeper skill-weapon bench and tighter defense might also be too much to handle.