Due to an unusually strong Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia Flyers will most likely not be seeing playoff hockey this spring. But even as the season winds down, fans still have something to look forward to: Noah Cates is on award watch.
The 27-year-old center has elevated his game after a strong 2024–25 campaign and subsequent contract extension. Now, he’s in the running for the Selke Trophy, granted to “the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game,” per the league’s definition.
Just how much of a case does Cates have? Well, in a recent article for The Athletic, Dom Luszczyszyn and his model ranked Cates fourth in the race (from ‘NHL awards watch: Nikita Kucherov, Zach Werenski make strong push against Avalanche’s top duo,’ The Athletic – March 23, 2026).
As Luszczyszyn established in his piece, it’s Montreal Canadiens centerman Nick Suzuki’s award to lose at this point. With 86 points and excellent defensive metrics to boot, nobody else’s two-way impact comes all that close. But Cates should certainly be in the finalist conversation. Let’s discuss why that is.
Breaking Down Cates’ Numbers
The Selke Trophy isn’t a pure defensive award—offense usually factors in, too. With that in mind, Cates has done admirably on that front. He has 16 goals and 24 assists in 71 games this season while playing 16:23 of ice time on average.
That’s a fairly efficient scoring rate. Among forwards with at least 250 minutes of ice time, he ranks in the 62nd percentile in points per 60, notably right ahead of William Eklund and Frank Nazar.
Cates truly shines when defense becomes part of the equation, however. Using Hockey Stats’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) model, he ranks first and seventh among all forwards on the penalty kill and in even-strength defense, respectively.
In other words, on top of his offensive production, Cates has had a profound impact on the defensive side of the puck. He has a 57.4% goal share and a 51.0% expected goal share.
Other Players in the Selke Trophy Conversation
Despite not being in the top five for Luszczyszyn’s list, other players prominently featured in the Selke Trophy conversation (aside from Suzuki) are Anthony Cirelli, Nico Hischier, and Sam Reinhart.
Unfortunately for Cates, those types of players—highly regarded top-sixers—tend to win and be finalists for the award. Carolina Hurricanes captain and middle-six center Jordan Staal finished second in the 2023–24 Selke Trophy race, but that was more of an exception than the rule.
Cates has the numbers at both ends of the ice to justify being a finalist, though. We’ll have to see whether they’re good enough to rank him above the more respected two-way stars of the sport.
What the Future Looks Like for Cates
Though being a Selke Trophy finalist would certainly mean a lot to Cates and validate his impressive season, falling short should take nothing away from what he’s done. What does the future look like for him?
At 27 years old, Cates is in his prime. He will more than likely give the Flyers two or so more seasons of this play—excellent defensively and complementary offensively in a middle-six role. He’s not a bad center option for the team’s young wingers, such as Denver Barkey, Alex Bump, Porter Martone, and Matvei Michkov.
It’s possible that Cates’ commendable defensive play extends into his 30s, perhaps in a 3C role. That’s the hope for the Flyers, whose Stanley Cup window probably won’t truly open up until that point.
My best guess for what happens is that Cates gets some love from local media and more analytically inclined voters but falls short of a top-three spot in the Selke Trophy race. However, no writer’s opinion can take this massive season away from him.
Stats courtesy of Hockey Stats
