Despite dropping a crucial game to the Columbus Blue Jackets recently, the Philadelphia Flyers have exceeded expectations in the points department. On pace for 94 over a full 82 games, it’s a notable upgrade on the 76 points they achieved last season.
But those assertions leave out crucial context. For the most part, the Orange and Black are leaning on a night-and-day improvement in their goaltending. More specifically, Dan Vladař has been incredible.
Now, head coach Rick Tocchet‘s system is definitely goalie-friendly. It allows someone like Vladař to reach his full potential. At the same time, this team’s turnaround is probably too dependent on the 28-year-old’s excellence.
In 2026–27, there are no guarantees that Vladař can maintain his elite level of play. Should he regress to even an average starter, much less a substandard one, turmoil may be in the Flyers’ future. Let’s discuss.
Flyers’ Standings Turnaround Is Mostly Because of Vladař
Last season, the Flyers had abysmal goaltending. According to Hockey Stats, their netminders combined for a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rating of minus-5.81. In other words, goaltending theoretically cost them about 12 points in the standings.
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This season, the Flyers’ goaltending has been fantastic. On the back of Vladař, their goalies are on pace for a WAR rating of 2.98 over 82 games, netting them about six standings points.
To be clear, this isn’t a perfect science. But in theory, we’re looking at six points added versus 12 subtracted—a difference of 18. Ironically, the difference between the Flyers’ 2024–25 and 2025–26 campaigns is also on track to be 18 points (76 vs. 94). Suffice it to say, goaltending has been huge.
Before this season, Vladař was a career backup. Now, he’s playing like a Vezina Trophy contender—the true backbone of the Flyers. He’s had an admirable turnaround that should honestly be talked about more.
However, there’s a problem here. Even if general manager Daniel Brière decides to add in the summer, vying to bring playoff hockey back to Philadelphia, his efforts will be futile if Vladař isn’t the same goalie. That’s where we get into the fairly realistic possibility of a doomsday 2026–27 season.
What a Doomsday 2026–27 Might Look Like
In the 2026 offseason, the Flyers make some “hockey” trades and add free agents to bolster their depth. Fans expect them to end their franchise record playoff drought of six seasons and get back into the dance. That is, until goaltending doesn’t bail them out to start the new campaign.
We don’t even have to assume Vladař truly struggles—just that he’s a lesser version of his recent self. What you’re left with is a team that’s a noticeable step behind the 2025–26 group, despite making improvements.
This is where things could get dangerous for Tocchet and potentially even Brière. When teams fail to meet fan expectations, uproar ensues. If the general public starts to believe that the team is further away from being a contender than they previously thought, changes will be made. Just ask Columbus.
The Flyers could always embrace their rebuild in the summer and part with veterans in exchange for younger assets, building around Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone. In that case, this situation could be prevented.
But if the Flyers’ summer moves indicate they want to make the playoffs in 2026–27—which is quite likely—fans are going to expect improvement. If that doesn’t happen, what comes next might not be pretty.
Unless Vladař can carry over the momentum of a breakout performance, the Flyers may very possibly be looking at regression in 2026–27. Management has to realize that, or else they risk a PR disaster.
