Ranking 2025 MLB playoff teams that are most likely to miss the postseason in 2026

Moving from one season to the next in Major League Baseball, we know we’re bound to get some turnover in the playoff field. The 2024 playoff field, for example, included five teams that did not make the postseason in 2025. Under the current format, which started in 2022, we’ve seen either five or six new teams each year, which means some of the previous playoff teams need to fall out to make room.

Who will it be this time around? Let’s rank last year’s 12 playoff teams in order of the likelihood that they’ll miss the 2026 playoffs. 

Odds via Caesars

12. Los Angeles Dodgers (-6000 to make the playoffs)

The Dodgers will absolutely, unequivocally not miss the playoffs in 2026. Next!

11. Seattle Mariners (-280)

I’m not necessarily saying the Mariners will be the second-best team in baseball, but a lot of the other teams that look really strong have tough competition for a playoff spot. As I peruse the AL West rosters, I see the Angels (terrible) and A’s (exciting offense but I’m not sure it’s enough) along with the Rangers and Astros. The gap, for me, between the Mariners and those latter two teams is pretty decent. The Mariners have a great and underrated offense, along with a sturdy rotation and good back-end bullpen guys. It’s hard to see them missing the playoffs entirely, even if they don’t repeat as AL West champs. 

9-10. Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees (-210 TOR, -300 NYY)

Last season, the Yankees and Jays tied for the best record in the American League, meaning the Blue Jays — with the tiebreaker — won the East while the Yankees took the top AL wild card. I have these two teams neck-and-neck atop the AL East again and I just can’t see a world where this division does not get at least two playoff teams. My prediction is they’ll both be fine while the Orioles and Red Sox fight for a wild card spot.

8. Detroit Tigers (-175)

I see the Guardians taking a step back while neither the Twins nor the White Sox are registering as a threat. I think it’s possible the Royals take the division (and, yes, I’m aware the Guardians are also a distinct possibility, as they are excellent at outplaying how they look on paper), but I like the Tigers here. Tarik Skubal-Framber Valdez is a great 1-2 punch in the rotation and the offense has potential to improve with growth from Colt Keith and a splash from Kevin McGonigle. 

7. Chicago Cubs (-240)

They don’t have any one aspect of the ballclub that totally jumps off the page — save for up-the-middle defense with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong — but it’s a well-rounded and relatively deep big-league ballclub. I could see them missing the playoffs, sure, but it’s a pretty decent bet the Cubs win the NL Central this time around. If the Cubs do fall to the Brewers again, I still like them better than any other NL wild card contender. 

6. Philadelphia Phillies (-275)

The Phillies are a playoff fixture, but there are certainly concerns here. We can’t be sure how Zack Wheeler will look upon his return and Aaron Nola showed signs of drastic decline last season. What if Andrew Painter doesn’t stick in the rotation? Offensively, I trust Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, but who beyond that trio? 

I understand that this is a likely playoff team, but there are plenty of reasons for concern. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they missed the postseason this time around.

5. Milwaukee Brewers (-140)

The projection systems have the Brewers taking a big step back from last season, when they had the best record and run differential in baseball. They reached the NLCS before getting swept by the Dodgers, who had gone into Terminator mode. The Brewers are one of those teams that just can’t be encapsulated by projections. They seem to punch above their proverbial weight every year and excel at getting the most out of their talent level. It would be foolish to believe they are definitely going to take a big step back and miss the playoffs. It’s certainly possible, though. 

I can’t help but wonder about this: The Brewers went absolutely bonkers last year from July 6-Aug. 16. They were 29-4 in that stretch. Otherwise, they were 68-61, which is still the record of a good team — just not an otherworldly one. My hunch is they’re much more the 68-61 version (remember, they needed all five games in the NLDS to beat the Cubs before going 0-4 to the Dodgers in the playoffs) than the 29-4 one. That leaves them vulnerable. 

4. Boston Red Sox (-170)

The AL East is just so crowded, pushing the Red Sox closer to the top of this list than they should be. The Orioles are poised for a bounce-back season from the disappointment that was 2025. I already noted that I believe pretty strongly in both the Blue Jays and Yankees. The presence of the Rays means there are no pushovers in this division, unlike the other five. It feels like the Red Sox and Orioles are fighting for third place, which means there’s a decent chance to miss the playoffs. I love the upside in that Boston rotation, but there are some concerns there (Sonny Gray is now 36 years old, for one). The lineup can be dynamic at times, but there are also plenty of questions there. 

3. San Diego Padres (+100)

They can’t keep up with the Dodgers, so we’re zeroing in on the wild card here. It’s a group likely to include two from the Mets, Phillies and Braves (and maybe the Marlins), two from the Cubs, Brewers and Reds along with any other West contenders (Giants? Diamondbacks?). The Padres certainly have star power with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado leading the way, but the back half of the lineup and final two spots in the rotation worry me greatly, and it’s not like Michael King and Joe Musgrove are guaranteed to be carrying 175-inning loads this season, either. I’ve been a big Padres proponent in the recent past, but I’m sitting 2026 out when it comes to their bandwagon.

2. Cleveland Guardians (+235)

Similar sentiment applies here to what I said about the Brewers in that the Guardians routinely play better than projection models think they will. In the case of the Guardians, they were a .500 team nearly all season. They were actually 69-70 before winning 17 of their next 19 games. The division title still counts and they deservedly made the playoffs, but that team was a lot more mediocre than amazing. In looking at the roster now, it still leaves a lot to be desired. 

1. Cincinnati Reds (+165)

I actually like the Reds’ roster for this season more than the Guardians’, but the Reds have a tougher path to the playoffs. The Cubs and Brewers are both really tough and we already talked about the NL wild card field.

I love the upside in the Reds rotation — even if Hunter Greene is out until July — and I like the Eugenio Suárez power added to the middle of that lineup. It was desperately needed. Elly De La Cruz could play like an MVP, while it’s possible the rest of the lineup improves naturally (Sal Stewart and Noelvi Marte in particular). 

Coming off an 83-win season in a division that isn’t terrible with a team that — while improved — isn’t great means the Reds are the most likely of last year’s 12 playoff teams to miss the 2026 postseason.