To this point in the Red Wings’ rebuild under general manager Steve Yzerman, most of his signature additions to Detroit’s roster have been through the draft. Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson and others all fit into this category, and it’s the organization’s success in the draft that currently has them in the thick of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference.
There has been one signature addition to the Red Wings’ roster made through a trade, however. That, of course, was the addition of winger Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators back in the summer of 2023. Yzerman traded a first-round pick, a fourth-round pick, winger Dominik Kubalik, and defense prospect Donovan Sebrango to acquire DeBrincat, who then signed a four-year contract with Detroit upon his arrival.
That was almost three years ago. Next season, DeBrincat will be in the final year of his current contract. That means that beginning this summer, the Red Wings and DeBrincat can begin discussions on an extension to keep him in Detroit.
If Yzerman and the Red Wings’ front office is wise, they’ll begin those discussions sooner rather than later.
DeBrincat Comes Home
When DeBrincat’s name hit the rumor mill ahead of the 2023 offseason, he was almost exclusively linked to the Red Wings. He was born and raised in the state of Michigan and grew up as a Red Wings fan. With the opportunity to basically dictate where the Senators could send him, it felt like a forgone conclusion that he would end up in Detroit.
Since then, the results have been as good, if not better than what Yzerman and the Red Wings could have hoped for.
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Across 232 games with the Red Wings (so far), he has 99 goals and 206 points for a points per-game rate (P/G) of .89. In Ottawa, he had a P/G of .8; Across 368 regular season games with the Chicago Blackhawks, the organization that drafted him, he had a P/G of .83. His 39-goal, 70-point effort last season was the second-best season of his career statistically speaking.
Furthermore, DeBrincat has proven himself to be a lethal scorer whether he’s on the top line with Raymond and Dylan Larkin or on the second line with Patrick Kane and whoever is centering their line that month. Since he was acquired by the Red Wings, DeBrincat has the 20th-most goals scored in the NHL.
DeBrincat’s relative-Corsi percentage is also the highest it’s been since joining the Red Wings. This is a measurement of a player’s impact on his team’s share of offensive chances; his rate with Detroit is 13.4%, meaning that Detroit’s share of offensive chances increases by 13% when he is on the ice. While he won’t ever be a Selke Trophy candidate, his defensive game has been better than advertised as well.
All in all, DeBrincat has provided a significant scoring punch to Detroit’s lineup since his arrival. He’s been a seamless fit in the locker room, and despite his history with two other organizations, it’s already starting to feel like it would be weird to see him in any uniform other than Detroit’s.
Seems like the type of player you want to get a deal done with sooner rather than later.
Let’s Talk Terms
DeBrincat’s current contract carries a $7.875 million cap hit, making him the 3rd highest paid forward on the Red Wings’ roster behind Larkin and Raymond. He’ll be 29 years of age at the time of his contract expiring, so he still has some good years of hockey left in him.
The question becomes what is DeBrincat’s number? It logically makes sense to keep his cap hit in the same ballpark as Larkin and Raymond given the team’s offensive depth chart, but the NHL salary cap has dramatically changed since any of their deals were signed.
By the time DeBrincat is staring at the possibility of free agency, the salary cap will be north of $110 million. That’s $15 million higher than the salary cap this season, and that $110 million figure is a fairly conservative projection. When the cap goes up, so do player salaries.
This is why it is important for the Red Wings to prioritize DeBrincat’s next deal sooner rather than later: his number is only going to keep climbing with the cap.
DeBrincat and his representation will likely seek a longer-term deal to effectively keep the player in Detroit for the rest of his career. The Red Wings should be able to accommodate this on a five or six-year pact while keeping his cap hit somewhere in the $8 million range – but it only works if the two sides can come to an agreement in the current salary cap climate. As soon as the cap is approaching $120 million, a player like DeBrincat could easily command $10 million or more on a new deal.
For the sake of maintaining a certain cap structure as well as maximum cap flexibility, the Red Wings should extend DeBrincat sooner rather than later.
