Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta can become the first 13-game winner in the majors when he takes the mound against the Miami Marlins at American Family Field on Friday in Milwaukee. Peralta (12-4, 2.85 ERA) is the only 12-game winner in all of baseball and has won seven straight starts. He hasn’t lost a decision since June 3. On Friday, he will square off against the Marlins’ Cal Quantrill (3-8, 5.24).
Sportsbooks have set Peralta’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5, while Quantrill’s is 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Peralta Under 6.5 (-151) and Quantrill Over 3.5 (-128) as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money, and one rated at 4 stars. Here they are:
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 strikeouts (-113) vs. Rays (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
The 34-year-old Reds righty (8-9, 4.73) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 11 of 20 starts this season. That includes his last start in which he struck out five while giving up two runs in five innings in a 5-2 victory against the Mets. The SportsLine Projection Model notes that Martinez has gone Over his total in four of his last five starts when Cincinnati was not favored, averaging 4.8 strikeouts per game. On Friday, he faces a Tampa Bay team that has struck out 10.3 times per game over its last three contests, including 13 strikeouts in its last game on Wednesday.
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Cardinals (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. The 32-year-old San Diego righty (10-2, 2.81) has not lost a decision since May 11 and has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in 12 of 20 starts this season, including four of his last five starts, averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game. In addition, Pivetta has a history of success against St. Louis, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in six career starts.
MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 strikeouts (-147) vs. Twins (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.5 strikeouts
Though the Nationals lefty (4-9, 3.59) is coming off his shortest outing of the season, the model likes him to go Over his strikeout total. Gore has had six or more strikeouts in 15 of 20 starts this season and ranks sixth in all of baseball in strikeouts (140). According to Baseball Savant, Gore ranks in the 89th percentile in strikeout percentage (29.8) and in the 88th percentile in whiff percentage (31.4). In addition, the SportsLine Projection Model notes that Gore tends to overachieve when faced with a middle-third lineup, going Over his pitcher strikeouts line in four of his last five games, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game.
