For all intents and purposes, the New Jersey Devils‘ season was over before they traveled west to face the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night. But already on a five-game skid, they were in desperate need of some positive vibes for a change.
On the heels of a stellar shutout performance from Jacob Markstrom (25/26 saves, .962%), they finally returned to the win column with a 3-1 victory.
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After an injury caused him to be out of action for 40 days, Devils’ defenseman Luke Hughes returned to the lineup tonight. While it’s typical for players who miss that much time to start out slow, it was the opposite for Luke.
His 18:13 of 5v5 time led the entire team — and they were dominant when he was out there. With him on the ice, the Devils led in scoring chances (15-5), high danger chances (4-2) and shot attempts (21-13). (via Natural Stat Trick) Luke also earned a point, assisting on Timo Meier’s second period goal.
In spurts, we’ve seen that Luke has the raw talent to be one of the better offensive defensemen in the league. While he hasn’t quite put it all together yet, stringing together more performances like tonight as the season nears a conclusion would be a great start.
Before some skating magic from Jack Hughes led to a Dougie Hamilton power play goal, the Devils’ power play was 0 for their last 19. Needless to say, it was a massive factor towards their five-game skid.
When digging deeper into their power play results this season, they’ve scored 30 goals on 43 expected goals. While that suggests the Devils’ power play should’ve scored 43% more this season, if you’re a glass half-full type, there’s reason to be happy:
When adjusting per 60 minutes, the Devils’ 9.91 expected goals (xGF/60) on the man advantage is the fifth-best mark in the entire league. Their 33.6 high danger chances per 60 (HDCF/60) is fourth in the NHL.
However, just like at 5v5, finishing has been a major issue. For every 33.6 HD chances, they’ve scored just 3.29. That’s less than one goal for every ten high-danger chances, while the average team is roughly around one in six. That’s ~40% more creation (on average) the Devils have needed to capitalize.
While it’s impossible to tell how much of that luck is a lack of finishing talent versus poor luck, they at least deserve the benefit of the doubt (unlike at 5v5) since they were third in the NHL last season (28.2%) with similar personnel. This season, they’re clicking at just 20.3% (15th).
Maybe tonight signals an upward trend/better finishing luck on the power play.
Prior to the Olympic break, it appeared that the defense was making great strides; from Jan. 19 to the break, their 2.19 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at 5v5 was the sixth-best mark in the league.
But they came out of the break with their fourth and third-worst defensive performances of the calendar year, respectively. It was imperative that they get back on the right foot.
Johnathan Kovacevic ended up being the odd man out, and two of the Devils’ defensive pairs (Brett Pesce/L. Hughes and Brenden Dillon/Simon Nemec) finished with an expected goals share above 80% (via Moneypuck). That’s completely dominant.
Their 1.64 xGA/60 tonight was (by far) their best effort since the Olympics, and 4th-best of the calendar year. And we can talk about underlying numbers until we’re blue in the face, but most importantly: they allowed just one goal and won the game.
While the defense made his job much easier than they have on recent occasions, props to Markstrom for making the necessary stops; he stopped +0.71 goals above expected.
The Devils — now 29-29-2 — will return home on Tuesday to face the Florida Panthers (7:00 PM EST).
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