The 2025-26 season is winding down, and while the Ottawa Senators haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, there are a few reasons to believe that they are poised to be true contenders in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
With four games remaining, the Senators sit in the second wild card position in the Eastern Conference. According to MoneyPuck, the Senators have an 83.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit with 92 points, with four teams right on their heels.
This team has the offense capable of scoring plenty of goals, their defense has stood strong over the course of a decimated blue line, and the goaltending is finding some stability at the best time.
The clinching point in the Eastern Conference, as of the morning of April 9, is 98 points. If the Senators can get to that point, they have the tie-breaker advantage over each of the teams behind them, having 35 regulation wins. If someone is going to pass them, it will be based on points.
Ottawa Senators (83.8% Chance) : 92 Points, 4 Games Remaining (Wild Card 2)Philadelphia Flyers (60.1% Chance): 92 Points, 4 Games Remaining (3rd in Metropolitan Division)Columbus Blue Jackets (27.9% Chance): 90 Points, 4 Games RemainingDetroit Red Wings (5.5% Chance): 89 Points, 4 Games RemainingNew York Islanders (19.5% Chance): 89 Points, 4 Games RemainingWashington Capitals (4.5% Chance): 89 Points, 3 Games Remaining
*odds via MoneyPuck on April 9, 2026*
The Blue Jackets have been itching to get in and have been on a phenomenal run under head coach Rick Bowness. They have struggled lately, winning just three of their last 10 games, but Bowness has made some changes and may have found another spark for the team. It helps that the third spot in the Metropolitan Division is still up for grabs, and the Blue Jackets could steal that from the Flyers, too.
The Islanders are in the same boat. After firing Patrick Roy and bringing in Pete DeBoer, they are looking for a new coach bump to get them into the playoff picture again. They have also struggled as of late, matching the three wins the Blue Jackets have over the same span of 10 games. Again, the third spot in the Metropolitan Division is still within reach for them, too.
The Detroit Red Wings are amidst another collapse. On Feb. 26, just after the Olympic break was over, the Red Wings sat second in the Atlantic Division with 74 points and a seven-point cushion between them and the top team outside of the playoff picture. Since then, they have a record of 6-10-3 and have fallen outside the playoffs.
If the Capitals were to win the rest of their games, that would bring them to 95 points. That is almost certainly not going to be enough, and MoneyPuck has them just a 4.5 percent chance to get in.
The Senators are in the best position to make the playoffs. If they win three of their last four games, that locks them into the playoffs. Only one of their last opponents has their eyes on the playoffs, being the Islanders, while the Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, and Toronto Maple Leafs have their eyes set on the draft lottery odds ahead of their matchups with the Senators.
The phrase “you are only as strong as your weakest link” is a pretty popular one, and it is certainly fitting with the Senators this season. Analytically, they are one of the best teams in the entire league, but goaltending, their weakest link, has made them vulnerable. With league-average goaltending, the Senators would more likely be contending for the top of the Atlantic Division than the wild card race.
We will come back to the goaltending, but for now, let’s focus on the analytics for the skaters.
Starting with some basic stats, the Senators rank eighth in goals for, 17th in goals against (considering the goaltending woes, that’s not too bad), and overall, sit 10th in goal differential across all situations with a plus-22 rating.
Those are pretty good, but turning to some advanced stats, things get even better looking. In terms of expected goals (xG) percentage, the Senators sit third in the league, right behind the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, who each lead their conference. Also, again sitting in third place behind those two teams is the Senators in the Corsi percentage category. The Senators dominate shot attempts and scoring chances.
The Senators have the lowest xG against per 60 minutes at 2.67, marking them as the best defensive team in the league, analytically. Not only that, but they allow the third fewest shots against in the league, too.
Everything seems to be lining up very well for the Senators. They get lots of great chances, could use a touch more finishing, but that hasn’t been problematic…yet. They have some of the best team defense in the league, so how are they so low in the standings relative to where the stats say they should be?
The story of the season has been in goal for the Senators. Coming into the season with Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen had many feeling confident. Ullmark has proven to be a great goalie, especially in his Vezina-winning year, and Merilainen saved the Senators in an unbelievable 12-game run in 2024-25.
This season, things were a different story. Both Ullmark and Merilainen struggled out of the gate, and it went downhill from there. For the majority of the season, Ullmark and Merilainen sat at or near the bottom of the goals saved above expected (GSAx) list, as did the Senators in team ranking.
Ullmark then took a leave of absence and has since been very open about his mental health struggles. Both Julian McKenzie (The Athletic) and Alex Adams (Sportsnet) did excellent write-ups on Ullmark that are worth checking out.
Since Ullmark’s return at the end of January, he has a 12-4-3 record and a .897 save percentage. Sure, the save percentage could be higher in a perfect world, but that mark lands one point above the league average of .896. All the Senators need from their goalies is average, and they are delivering.
In January, the coaching staff was shuffled as the penalty kill sat 31st overall with just a 71.7 percent success rate. Nolan Baumgartner was heading that, and now has his responsibilities set on the defense, which he has been doing a great job of managing.
Mike Yeo took over the duties of the penalty kill, and since the change, the Senators have killed off 81.9 percent of opposing power plays, which ranks in the top 10 in that time frame. It was a potential season-altering change from head coach Travis Green. With the penalty kill humming now and the power play more than capable of succeeding, they are in a great position.
There is a case to be made that the Senators have one of the best defensive groups in the NHL, at least when they are healthy. It has been a crazy run of defensive injuries for the club.
Injuries and games missed since Olympic break:
Jake Sanderson: Upper-body (shoulder) injury, missed 13 gamesThomas Chabot: Upper-body (broken arm) injury, missed eight games so farNick Jensen: Lower-body (knee surgery), missed 12 games so farTyler Kleven: Upper-body (puck to face) injury, missed three games so far, week-to-weekCarter Yakemchuk: Upper-body (concussion) injury, missed four games, sent to AHLLassi Thomson: Lower-body (foot) injury, missed two gamesDennis Gilbert: Upper-body (shoulder) injury, missed nine games so far
So, by that count, the first injury to the blue line was March 7 when Sanderson went down. The Senators have played 16 games since then, and have lost 51 man-games just on their blue line. That kind of luck is unfathomable.
Related: Senators News & Rumours: Chabot Injury Update, Playoff Race & More
The injuries have led to opportunities for a lot of players to suit up in the nation’s capital, and while some of them are on that injured list, Cameron Crotty and Jorian Donovan have gotten opportunities, Thomson has been great during that time, and Jordan Spence has reached another level, playing the best and most hockey of his career.
Artem Zub and Nikolas Matinpalo have continued doing their job and have been steady with so much turnover around them.
Sanderson has returned to the lineup and put together one of his best performances of the season with a two-goal showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not many defensemen can be as reliable as Sanderson is. He sits 17th in the league in xG per 60 minutes and 12th in on-ice xG percentage. With 51 points in 65 games played, his offense is a huge asset for the club as he is one of the best players in the transition, and his breakout plays are always key to their success. He is a jack of all trades and master of most. There are Norris Trophies heading his way.
Chabot, after breaking his arm 17 days ago, is set to return to the lineup on April 9 as the Senators take on the Florida Panthers. He is another defenseman having an excellent season. While his production hasn’t been stellar, he has been a key part of their transition game as well. Chabot’s offense that he generates doesn’t always appear on the scoresheet, but he deserves a ton of credit for what he does on the second pair and second power play unit.
Kleven is looking to get back into the lineup around the time that the playoffs commence. If the Senators get in, they are going to appreciate having him back in the lineup. During the 2025 series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, there were some big moments from a lot of players, but Kleven had a great showing and, even on the third pair, was one of their most valuable assets.
On the right side, as mentioned, Zub, Matinpalo, and Spence all play great roles on this team. Zub is one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league. While offense isn’t his forte, he has set a new career-high with 28 points this season. He is one of the hardest players to go into the corners against, and will do whatever he needs to win a loose puck battle.
Matinpalo has spent a lot of the season serving as a healthy scratch, but when he is playing, even at the Olympic level, he is impressing people. He is one of the fastest defensemen in the league, and while he doesn’t utilize it to develop offense very often, his utilization of it on the defensive side of the game is excellent. For the sixth/seventh defenseman, there isn’t much more you could ask for from a player like him.
And last, but certainly not least, Spence. The injuries to Sanderson and Chabot left Spence as the best puck-moving option and one of the veterans on the blue line. The 25-year-old defenseman has spent most of the season on the third pair with Kleven. They have been an excellent pairing, and there are absolutely no complaints about either of them, except for the lack of ice time.
Spence has taken this 13-game run and made millions off of it. With restricted free agent rights this offseason, he is going to look to cash in using the evidence of this stint. Throughout that time, he has nine points in his last 11 games, and analytically, has been one of the best defensemen in the league over that time. Even across the whole season, Spence ranks second in on-ice xG percentage. He deserves one heck of a raise from his $1.5 million salary.
With all six of the Senators’ regular defensemen playing excellent hockey, and the depth proving they can keep pace in the NHL, there are no concerns about the defensive group in the playoffs. They can match up against anybody else in the league.
Back to the offense to close this piece out.
We looked at the analytics, but those can only get you so far. Having a high amount of expected goals is great, but the scoreboard and standings don’t care about that.
The Senators are privileged to have some high-octane offensive players as a part of their core group, but having the great play from secondary scorers helps, too.
Tim Stutzle, unsurprisingly, leads the way offensively. With 82 points through 78 games, he is on pace to come just shy of his career-high of 90 points. That type of production is great, and when you factor in his dazzling talents, there is not a long list of centers that a team would rather have. He drives the play every time he is on the ice. If he had some wingers with more finish, he could easily be challenging the 100-point mark.
Brady Tkachuk has taken a lot of flak this season. Fans are pointing out that he has been missing the passion and drive that make him the unicorn he is. While there are definitely some games you could point to with evidence of this, his goal-scoring and point production have been as good as ever, and while he isn’t laying as many hits or fighting as much, he still makes a huge impact on this team.
The Senators could use a third player in this conversation. Those are the top two, and then there is a gap. Another scoring winger for the top line has been, and will continue to be, a priority for Steve Staios heading into the offseason.
Breaking the rest of the forward group up by each line, Stutzle has often been centering Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson. Batherson has matched his career-high of 68, set last season, and has a few games left to build on that. His production is great, but he isn’t a play-driver like Stutzle. Giroux, an aging vet, still has a role on the team, but the top line is a bit much for him at times. Of course, the intangibles are great, his faceoffs can be critical, and his defensive play is still strong, but at 38 years old, he is still on pace for nearly 50 points.
The second line, which has Tkachuk alongside Dylan Cozens and Ridly Greig, has been the best offensive line since being formed. This trio has spent more time together than any other Senators line, and the 33rd most across the league.
Cozens is the only player in the league with 25 goals and 200 hits. He plays a very similar game to Brady Tkachuk, who has been one of the very few players to hit that mark multiple times over the last four seasons. Greig is a pesky player. Nobody enjoys playing against him. He has been producing well with 33 points, but does so much away from the puck, too.
The third line has been Shane Pinto, centering Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins. The three of them make for one of the best shutdown lines in the league. Among all lines with 250 or more minutes together, they rank second in xG percentage at 63.7 percent.
Who is first?
Tkachuk, Cozens, and Greig are. They get their xG percentage up by their tenacious forechecking and gritty play, while the third line is up there because they are all defensive masterclasses.
The fourth line, which typically sees Warren Foegele and Fabian Zetterlund on the wings of Lars Eller, is a great veteran line. Zetterlund has been pretty cold this season, but he also hasn’t spent much time in a position to thrive offensively. All three of these players have great speed and offensive capabilities, but have assumed the role of fourth-liners who play with speed and confidence.
A healthy Senators lineup has so much going right for them, and the biggest question will boil down to whether or not the adequate goaltending continues.
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