In a lot of ways, New Jersey Devils‘ defenseman Simon Nemec made sizeable progress this season towards his ceiling as a #2 overall pick. His 26 points in 68 games was the best mark of his career — and at the age of just 21, he showed strides in his defensive game and overall maturity.
Now, he’ll become a restricted free agent (RFA) on Jul. 1. The Devils are faced with three logical decisions: give him a long-term extension, trade him in a package for a player who can make an immediate NHL impact, or settle for a bridge deal. Let’s explore each option and discuss the pros and cons of each.
Some rumors have swirled saying Nemec and his camp are searching for an extension similar to Lane Hutson’s eight-year, $70.8 million ($8.85M AAV) contract he signed in October. If that’s the price, the Devils might be better suited to opt for a trade. Hutson is far more complete than Nemec.
But if there’s no merit to that (or even if there is and Nemec’s camp eventually lowers), Nemec could be a crucial part of the team’s future success. The average defenseman reaches their peak performance between ages 27 and 29; there’s still plenty of time to grow. But he already offers something the Devils don’t get much of from their back-end…goal scoring.
Nemec generated 7.29 expected goals but scored 11 — +3.71 above expected, effectively making him the Devils’ second-best finisher, and best on the back-end. Only Cody Glass (+5.54 above expected) was higher. (via Natural Stat Trick)
While Dougie Hamilton has been widely considered to be the team’s best shooting defenseman, Nemec scored just one fewer goal despite playing nine fewer games and having 45 fewer scoring chances. Adjusting for time-on-ice, Nemec’s goal production (per 60 minutes) was over 12% better than any other Devils defenseman.
However, despite some improvement, Nemec’s defensive play has been inconsistent — typically more rough showings than not. With how much general manager (GM) Sunny Mehta (and his team) will likely value analytics, they may come to the conclusion that the cons outweigh the pros, which is one possible reason this next route might end up the most likely one…
Given the Devils’ lack of goal scoring, and the fact that Nemec is one of their best finishers, the Devils should only trade Nemec for a player — preferably a top-six forward — who will make an immediate impact and help them reach ‘contender’ status.
It’s very possible that even if Devils’ brass is more bullish on Nemec’s development than most, a trade could still be in the cards. As of now, they have seven everyday defensemen under contract for six spots: Jonas Siegenthaler, Brenden Dillon, Dougie Hamilton, Johnathan Kovacevic, Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce, all in addition to Nemec. It would be nonsensical to have all seven rostered by Opening Night, given how tight their cap situation is and their need to bolster the forward group.
Even if it takes moving their first-round picks and/or additional prospects as part of a larger package, adding another elite forward should take precedence over what Nemec could bring if he reaches his ceiling.
Furthermore, prior to the deadline, Nemec switched his agent, moving from Creative Artists Agency’s (CAA) JP Barry to Craig Oster of Newport. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said in March, “[That’s] always a bad sign for an incumbent. That’s one reason he’s out [on the trade market].” Generally, when a player switches agents, it’s because they’re searching for a change of scenery.
Much like Jesper Bratt and Dawson Mercer signed when they became RFAs, the Devils will have the opportunity to do the same with Nemec. In 2021, Bratt signed for two years, $5.5 million ($2.75M AAV). In 2024, Mercer signed for three years, $12 million ($4M AAV).
Nemec getting a lower AAV would allow the Devils to have shorter-term financial flexibility while still keeping open the possibility of him signing a larger extension if he’s able to perform well. That’s a big if though and still holds a lot of question marks for both sides.
SIMON NEMEC HATTY FOR THE OT WINNER 🎩
FULL ICE PASS FROM MARKSTROM 🤯 pic.twitter.com/LGj5iQXw9U
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) November 13, 2025
On the sole basis of being a young #2 overall pick, plus some clutch moments, Nemec’s value is potentially overinflated at the moment. The potential to be a top-pair defender is certainly there, but if he isn’t fully able to live up to it, that value would plummet.
Overall, this feels like the least likely option given the overall vibes of Nemec’s tenure; it seems like he’d either be all in or not at all. There has been a lot of hoopla involving his deployment and overall happiness dating back to 2024. There’s an emotional element to all of this that Nemec would likely (and understandably) want to end once and for all. The Devils themselves would likely feel the same way.
While a recent report from Elliotte Friedman explained that the salary cap will rise $8.5 million for next season, the Devils still won’t have a ton of wiggle room if they want to meaningfully improve the roster. With Nemec currently making less than a million dollars per season, a long-term contract extension could absorb almost the entire increase itself.
The average age of the other six Devils’ defensemen — excluding Nemec — will be 29.66 on Opening Night. If you take out the young Luke Hughes, the other five defensemen average out to 31.2 years of age. This decision with Nemec will play a massive role in determining the direction of the entire defensive corps. And it’s very possible that regardless, other defensemen may be on the move.
Mehta made it very clear in his first presser that there will be some risk involved in decisions he makes, but that’s par for the course for GMs of all contenders. You don’t get to the promise land without taking risks. It should be very interesting to see how he approaches this situation during the offseason.
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