Thursday marks exactly two weeks since Opening Day in Major League Baseball. We've seen every team play at least 11 games, while no team has played more than 13. A dozen-game sample or so in the middle of the season can tell us a few things here and there, but, generally speaking, wouldn't be taken as a harbinger of how the rest of the season would play out.
Here in the first two weeks of the season, though, everyone is itching to draw conclusions, mostly because there's nothing else to do. Especially jarring for a fan base (or maybe a front office) can be a terrible start after a winter and spring full of high expectations.
That's why we have the Panic Meter.
The panic meter is scaled 0-10, with 0 being not a care in the world and 10 being mass hysteria. The 0-4 side is building concern while the 6-10 side is worry creeping toward panic. A 5 would be the center point between "decent concern" and "slight worry."
An interesting twist here heading into Thursday's action is that only two teams in the National League are below .500 while only three teams in the American League are above .500. As such, the four teams we hit here today all come from the AL. Oops.
Record: 5-7
In and of itself, a 5-7 start to the season from a defending league champion isn't really all that bad. It certainly isn't good, but there wouldn't be major cause for concern. The context behind the Blue Jays' start, however, reveals plenty of cause. After sweeping the Athletics at home to start the season, the Jays lost two of three to the Rockies at home and were then swept in Chicago by the White Sox. Those were expected to be two of the worst teams in baseball. And then the Jays got their teeth kicked in by the Dodgers for two games. They had lost six straight and seven of eight. The win on Wednesday has to help alleviate some of the negative vibes, but the Jays have a negative-22 run differential, rank 24th in OPS and 23rd in ERA and have several key players on the injured list.
Panic Meter: 2
That they've had so many problems and still sit only two games under .500 shows that things could turn around rather quickly. The Jays are perfectly capable of sweeping an uninspiring Twins team this weekend and, if that happens, all of a sudden they'd be back above .500 at 8-7.
The Blue Jays started last season 7-5, so they've fallen two games behind that pace, but there's no reason to do things like panic. Plus, they lost eight of nine later in April. They were 26-28 through May 27 before they finally got hot.
It was a brutal stretch that we just witnessed -- to get embarrassed by two likely not-good teams and then steamrolled by the Dodgers for two games -- but it's over now. The Blue Jays are only two games under .500. No team should be looking at the standings in earnest yet, but being 3 ½ games out of first isn't even a big deal. They trailed by as many as eight games last year.
Record: 4-8
Let these Red Sox be a good illustration of why no team's fan base should actually "panic" so early in the season. The Red Sox are 2-8 and have looked awful in every facet. They scored two or fewer runs in four of those first 10 games. They allowed at least six runs in five of those first 10 games. They were outscored by 17 runs. After winning Opening Day, they lost five straight games before returning home to lose two of three to the Padres.
The Red Sox, though, might have already turned a corner. Garrett Crochet threw well on Tuesday and the offense did just enough to grab a one-run victory. Then Boston got an ace-like effort from Sonny Gray on Wednesday and the offense woke up for a 5-0 win.
Just like that, the Red Sox not only had won their first series of the season, but they also took a series from the Brewers -- who had baseball's best record last season and started this year 8-2.
Is everything fixed, though?
We're still talking about a team that has lost two-thirds of its games. The offense is 19th in OPS and I'm not sure the talent level is a ton higher than that. The team ERA ranks 20th. There is, likely, more upside in there. How much, though?
Panic Meter: 3
Granted, a lot of this is based on preseason expectations because I had the Red Sox finishing fourth and missing the playoffs. And take note that I'm still not willing to go any higher than a three. A lot of the projection systems had the Red Sox right on the fringe of the playoffs heading into the season, meaning the margins are awfully tight. Starting 2-8 means they have dug themselves quite the hole and I'm not sure they are talented enough to fully pull themselves out.
Then again, the Red Sox will not be the only team with playoff hopes to lose eight of 10 this season. Did they just get the bad stretch out of the way early?
The six-game road trip to St. Louis and Minnesota is very workable, assuming the Red Sox can carry their momentum from these last two wins. Things might well be on track by this time next week.
Record: 4-8
The Tigers started out this season by winning their first two games. From 2-0 to 4-8. Yuck. They were swept in three games in Arizona and so far have lost three straight in Minnesota against what I figured would be a bad Twins team this season. They've lost two of Tarik Skubal's three starts and Framber Valdez got ripped on Wednesday.
To have only played two weeks and already put together two separate four-game losing streaks just feels awful, right?
On top of this, the Tigers have two things hanging over their heads. First off, they blew one of the largest leads in MLB history last season, losing the AL Central despite holding a 14-game lead at one point. Most of that team returned and they have to be aware that their second-half showing just won't cut it.
Secondly, if the Tigers fall out of contention by July, Skubal -- a soon-to-be free agent -- will surely be traded. As such, they might feel more urgency to turn things around than the other teams on this list.
Panic Meter: 3
After noting the extreme circumstances as negatives above, let's take note of a few positives. First off, the Tigers stats don't show one of the worst teams in baseball. They only have a negative-one run differential and sit 13th in OPS.
Further, they've only had three home games compared to nine on the road. They went 2-1 at home. They'll return home for a three-game series against a Marlins team that is inferior in talent this weekend.
They should be fine, though take note I said "should be" and not "will be."
Record: 4-9
Few fan bases have suffered as much as the Mariners faithful. After all, this is the only active franchise to have never played in the World Series. Even when they won an MLB-record 116 games, they fell short in the ALCS. They grabbed a 3-2 lead in the ALCS last season only to lose Games 6 and 7. The expectations for the follow-up season were high. And here we are.
The Mariners have lost seven of their last eight games. Cal Raleigh has been brutal. Josh Naylor has been worse. Julio Rodríguez is off to yet another terrible start. The team as a whole is hitting .184/.280/.301, putting them dead last in the majors in all three categories. They are last in OPS by 33 points.
Panic Meter: 2
Did you know they started last season 4-8 before getting really, really hot? They'd win 18 of their next 24.
This obviously isn't to say the same thing will inevitably occur this season. That's not how it works. It's just an illustration that a dramatic turnaround is possible. They happen. The Mariners have to hope it happens again.
There are plenty of things to keep in mind here. First off, the Mariners are 1-5 in one-run games and that shows they are in most of these games, which in turn means they'll very likely start winning some of them. Raleigh, Naylor and Rodríguez are too good to keep hitting so poorly, so the expectation should be that all three start hitting soon. What if it happens at once and all three are hot at the same time? All of a sudden, wins are a lot easier to come by.
Also, there's a bit of what I believe will be a soft spot in the schedule coming up. After a four-game series against the Astros and three games in San Diego -- a tough seven-game stretch -- the Mariners host the Rangers and A's before visiting the Cardinals and Twins. That's a very workable part of the calendar if they are playing well.
My hunch is that by May, the Mariners are above .500 and look just fine.
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