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This time of year is among the most optimistic for front offices around the NFL.
The draft is less than three weeks away. Teams are out of the free agency haze and finalizing their draft boards. The promise of future stars on rookie-scale contracts joining the roster is within reach.
Teams' success or failure in the draft often hinges on one variable: their risk assessment when dealing with polarizing prospects.
The truth is that many promising players simply won't pan out for a variety of reasons. Even the most savvy front offices are subject to the whims of a projection.
Some of the most talented prospects come with the most questions. The extent to which a team can address those questions -- and become comfortable with the answers -- determines the direction of their draft.
Whether it's due to injury, style of play, personal chemistry or organizational fit, players throughout the draft draw differing opinions throughout the league. ESPN asked executives, scouts and coaches about the players who elicited the widest range of projections. These 10 prospects came up most often.
Jump to:Ty Simpson | Rueben Bain Jr.Jermod McCoy | Micah MorrisKadyn Proctor | Makai LemonAvieon Terrell | Lee HunterCashius Howell | Drew Allar
Simpson is polarizing due to circumstance more than ability. His draft stock is all over the map. The player loosely expects to go anywhere from 10 to 30 in the first round, but it's hard to confidently project a home for him yet. Positional needs could push him above his grade, but enough scouts have a second-round grade on him to make early Day 2 a possibility.
Simpson's lack of starts is the primary concern. He started one year in an era when many quarterback prospects have two to four years of production. He played well through the first two months of the 2025 season and struggled late.
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"I don't think anything about him other than him being a one-year player is supremely polarizing," an AFC executive said. "There's not a good history of it, but I think you've got to take each guy as an individual case.
"I don't think anyone expects him to come in right away and be great. If picked in the 20s, he'll get experience and reps and get legs under him. He's a good kid, a coach's kid, had a lot of good production and success. Maybe not on the same tier as top guys, but he's still a player."
One veteran NFL scout called Simpson "a mix between Jared Goff and Mac Jones." What helps Simpson's cause is what he was asked to do at Alabama.
"He made a lot of NFL throws," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "Some guys were running a glorified high school offense in college, but [Simpson] was throwing deep in-breakers, corners, deep outs, seams, curls."
Bain would not be on this list if his arms were a few inches longer. He's powerful, productive and bendy off the edge. He's an All-American coming off 15.5 tackles for loss last year. By all accounts, he loves the game.
But the 30⅞-inch arm length is still an issue, no matter how much teams wish it weren't.
"It's not nothing," a personnel executive with an NFL team picking in the top 10 said. "It's in between.
"The kid's played his entire life that way and been pretty successful. But I think it will pose a challenge. He's found a way to work around it, leaving blockers, using his squattines to his advantage. But you use your hands and arms on every play, trying to control the blocker who's trying to control you, reaching and running 60 times a game. It's an imperfect science, and you can't say he can't play football because he can. But he will have some issues."
Bain also did not test or run at his pro day, relying on drill work. That's an issue for some scouts because "to completely dismiss it without knowing the physical talent that we measure is probably more of a risk than the actual player," the exec said.
Despite all of this, Bain might just be the draft's best edge rusher, a wonderful blend of physicality and savvy. The risk assessment will be a factor for teams picking in the top 10 to 12.
McCoy is on this list largely because he didn't play in 2025 due to an ACL tear. But he looked every bit the part of a high draft pick at Tennessee's pro day last month, running a 4.37-second 40-yard dash and jumping 38 inches. And multiple coaches pointed out that the 6-foot-1 McCoy looks bigger in person than they thought he would.
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"Really fluid, poised and calm in coverage, never see him panicked or out of phase, doesn't have to strain to make plays," a veteran NFL defensive coach said.
Evaluators must be comfortable with the 2024 tape to draft him, and one AFC exec calls that tape "good, but I didn't see a wow player ... so if you have any concerns about lower extremity durability, too, then you might have a tough time taking him."
McCoy has the profile to be picked early. But teams are doing homework on his knee and need to be comfortable with it. McCoy is visiting Carolina, which picks No. 19 overall, on Friday.
You won't find Morris very high on many mock drafts or positional big boards floating around the internet right now. That's not because of ability.
"He's probably a first-round talent who goes late Day 2 or early Day 3," a veteran NFL scout said. "He should be a first-rounder based on the flashes on tape. But he's not."
Morris, a multiyear starter at Georgia who weighs 334 pounds, ran a 5.09-second 40-yard dash and posted a 9-foot-4 broad jump.
Some teams have questions about his work ethic.
"I'll be curious where he goes because there are not many guards and he's got a lot of ability," the scout said. "But people are afraid of him."
One NFL team executive was blunt when assessing Proctor. "He should be a top-five pick," the exec said. "He can be so good if he wants to be."
That last line implies Proctor hasn't met his potential, which is tricky to entertain because he was a three-year starter at Alabama and is a surefire first-rounder. He's too good to fall far.
But some of the questions surrounding Proctor have to do with his weight, which scouts say ballooned to around 390 pounds early in the season. He played his way into shape. He's around 350 pounds now and looked great at his pro day.
The weight dynamic, however, fuels concerns about why Proctor's performance didn't always match his immense physical talent.
The history of Alabama offensive tackles is not great. Evan Neal and Alex Leatherwood did not pan out. JC Latham is promising but a work in progress. It should be noted that Neal and Leatherwood played multiple positions at Alabama, while Proctor played one.
"He's a clean left tackle with elite size and foot quickness," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "That will get him drafted high."
Scouts say Lemon's tape is excellent, but his measurables and predraft process raise questions.
"What are you getting?" a personnel executive with an NFL team asked. "I love that dude, watching him last year, but evaluating him through the spring, which version of this player will show up in my building? He didn't test great, had a couple of rough interviews from what I've been told. Seems like something is missing, or maybe I'm missing something."
Want to know more about the 2026 NFL draft class? ESPN's new show 'NFL Draft Daily' airs Monday-Friday at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2, ESPN+, Disney+ and Hulu. Join Mel Kiper Jr., Field Yates and other experts for the latest on top prospects.
Another NFL personnel source said Lemon's recall and detail of USC's offense was not the strongest during a team interview. If teams love his intensity and competitive demeanor, they could overlook that. Lemon's strengths are route running, running after the catch and contact balance. And, to be sure, plenty of star NFL players did not conduct great predraft interviews.
Lemon's 40-yard dash time ranged from 4.46 to 4.53 seconds at USC's pro day, according to reports. One AFC scout considers him "too small and too slow. Maybe he can overcome that, but it's an issue."
That scout said his best-case scenario is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who at 6-foot and 202 pounds has a similar build to Lemon (5-11, 192 pounds) and is also a former USC star.
Ohio State's Carnell Tate is considered by some scouts as the safest receiver prospect.
This one's pretty simple. Becoming a productive corner in the NFL often requires speed, and Terrell's 40-yard dash time calls that into question.
Terrell is a fluid mover with good corner skills, but the 4.64-second 40 he ran at his pro day is the first thing scouts bring up when discussing him. Terrell did not run at the scouting combine. Also problematic are Terrell's hands, which measured out at 8⅝ inches.
"It's hard to ask him to cover one-on-one on the outside with that time," an AFC scout said. "It's an issue. I wish it wasn't but it is. I think some teams will consider him more inside as a result."
Last year, cornerback Will Johnson also faced questions about his speed. He did not run the 40 predraft and was not considered a blazer. He also had knee issues, falling to the second round. But the tape was first-round worthy and he showed that Year 1 in Arizona.
Terrell also has good qualities on tape, and his brother, A.J. Terrell Jr., has been the Atlanta Falcons' top corner for six seasons.
Hunter had a banner season for Tech, helping guide the Red Raiders to a Big 12 championship on his way to All-America honors at nose tackle, complete with 10.5 tackles for loss. But what some scouts saw in the preseason still sticks with them a bit.
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"He was around 346 pounds and wasn't doing much," an AFC scout said. "If you evaluated him in person in November, you probably loved him. If you scouted him early and then turned in your eval, probably not as much."
Hunter is listed at 330 pounds, so if he stays closer to that weight at the NFL level, he should remain nimble.
Evaluators see a disruptive nose tackle who can make splash plays in the backfield but sometimes relies on that ability too often instead of staying solid and occupying blockers. He didn't test very well at his pro day, with a vertical jump of 21.5 inches.
Howell's arm length is even shorter than Bain's, at 30¼ inches. He's ultra productive, winning SEC defensive player of the year after recording 11.5 sacks in 2025. He's only 22 despite five collegiate seasons. And his 4.59-second 40-yard dash is impressive for his size (6-2½, 253 pounds).
"Bain can overcome his short arms with raw power. Howell doesn't have that," an AFC scout said. "What he does have is an incredible motor. He goes hard all the time."
NFL teams see a starting-caliber player or, at worst, a subpackage rusher who must find creative ways to win on the outside due to his arms.
Howell ranks as the No. 4 outside linebacker in Mel Kiper Jr.'s positional big board, behind Ohio State's Arvell Reese, Texas Tech's David Bailey and Oklahoma's R Mason Thomas.
This draft does not feature a star-studded quarterback class like the one we saw in 2024, when six passers went in the top 12. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is at the top, and then teams will pick their flavor.
Where Allar sits in that equation is tough to project due to a tough 2025. Allar struggled with accuracy and played only six games because of a fractured left ankle.
But some NFL evaluators still see major upside in Allar, who once garnered first-round buzz thanks to his 6-5 frame and big arm.
Drew Allar throws 42-yard touchdown pass vs. Florida International
Drew Allar airs it out for 42-yard touchdown pass
"He's my favorite quarterback in the draft outside of Mendoza," an NFL coordinator said. "In the right system, he can be great. He's got everything as far as tools. His footwork is an absolute mess. But improve his footwork and he can take off. He deserved better than what he got at Penn State."
The coordinator stressed that Allar needs to be in a Kubiak-style system -- which essentially half the NFL uses right now -- to learn proper footwork.
Others in consideration: Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, Auburn edge rusher Keldric Faulk, Arkansas running back Mike Washington Jr.
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