2026 NFL Draft prospects most likely to fall: Arm length, injury risk hinder polarizing first-round targets

Since no two prospects are the same, NFL Draft slides come in all shapes and sizes. For edge rushers, shorter arms often means greater likelihood of slipping out of the first round. For quarterbacks, a lack of starting experience could be the difference between a Day 1 selection and a tumble into the middle rounds. The 2026 draft class could see both of those worries result in projected first-rounders falling out of the first 32 picks.

The 2025 draft provided one of the most infamous slides in recent memory as Shedeur Sanders, once viewed as a surefire first-round quarterback, waited all the way until Day 3 to hear his name called at No. 144 overall. It would be a true shock if any of this year’s top prospects experienced that kind of disappointment, but then again, nobody expected it to happen to Sanders, either.

Just because a prospect missed an entire season due to injury or has character concerns does not mean teams will pass on him in the first round. These players are in the discussion to be among the first 32 players selected in the draft for a reason. All of them are potential stars. Teams have to weigh the risks with the possible stardom, though, and in some cases, it simply is not worth the investment.

Here are the eight players in the greatest danger of sliding out of the 2026 NFL Draft’s first round.

Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami

No edge rusher with an arm measurement of 30 7/8 inches or shorter has gone in the first round of any draft since at least 1999, per ESPN. While most expect Rueben Bain Jr. to snap that trend, the precedent exists for him to not only slip out of the top 10 but to even wait until Day 2 to hear his name called. Plus, while most teams consider the matter handled and appear unfazed, Bain was cited in 2024 for careless driving in an incident that led to one passenger’s eventual death. According to CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones, at least one team was not satisfied with Bain’s explanation of the matter.

Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M

If Bain’s arm length is an issue, then Cashius Howell is in an even more precarious position given that he measured out even shorter at 30 1/4 inches. He is more widely projected to be selected in the back end of the first round to begin with, so the risk of falling out of the top 32 is far greater than that of his Miami counterpart. Howell developed into a standout after a year of development at both Bowling Green and Texas A&M, so while his measurables did not hold him back from elite production, he does have a history of needing time to get up to speed at various levels. That could be a deterrent for NFL teams that need starting-level contributions right away.

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

That this year’s draft class lacks firepower at the quarterback position has people searching for the next-best thing after Fernando Mendoza. While Ty Simpson has become the clear No. 2 passer behind the presumptive top overall pick, the gap between the two is arguably wide enough to keep him out of the first round. That would come as a surprise to some who think there are teams willing to trade up and grab him on Day 1.

Because the 2027 class projects as a loaded one at the signal-caller spot, teams have an incentive to wait another year before finding their franchise quarterback. That could spell a long wait for Simpson, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier and the other top prospects. Simpson owning just one year of starting experience at Alabama might be another deterrent, especially since he faded down the stretch of his 2025 campaign.

Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

It does not take a whole lot of imagination to picture Jermod McCoy as an NFL standout, but it does take some. That is because he missed the entire 2025 college football season due to a torn ACL he sustained the January prior and NFL Media is reporting he could be headed toward more surgery. It has been well over a year since the Tennessee standout last played a snap, so even though he has participated in workouts and drills since then, there is no full guarantee that he is the same cornerback who flashed tons of potential in 2024.

McCoy was a terrific freshman at Oregon State and had a brilliant debut season in the SEC, and his tape screams “first-round pick.” But now that he has an injury history and was limited to just two years of college ball, it would not be the biggest shock to see teams use their first-round capital elsewhere.

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Jordyn Tyson tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in 2022. He suffered a broken collarbone in 2024. A nagging hamstring injury limited him last season and caused him to sit out of the NFL combine and Arizona State’s pro day. None of those injuries are directly related, but they paint a concerning picture that puts Tyson’s durability in question. He held a personal workout for NFL teams on Friday, but was it enough to quell their concerns about his readiness for the pro level? The answer will come on Thursday when he either goes in the first round as expected or slips behind the receivers who have clearer outlooks.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Only one prospect over the last 15 years weighed in at more than 350 pounds at the NFL combine and proceeded to go in the first round: Mekhi Becton in 2020. Kadyn Proctor projects to follow in his footsteps at 352 pounds. This kind of size has its obvious benefits, and Proctor is immensely athletic for someone with his gigantic frame (he is also just under 6 feet, 7 inches). But it also has drawbacks, which were also apparent at Alabama — where he was far from the most consistent blocker and saw his weight fluctuate — and could lead to him moving inside to guard in the NFL. 

Caleb Banks, DL, Florida

Recurring foot injuries are never ideal but especially so for 327-pound linemen. Not only did Caleb Banks miss all but three games last season with a broken foot, but he also broke the fourth metatarsal in his left foot ahead of the NFL combine and underwent his second surgery in the span of six months. It might not be until the summer before Banks is at full speed.

Even with the foot issues, Banks commands hype as a first-round talent. He is a physical beast on the interior. The Florida product needs to stay on the field, though, because a lot of his allure revolves around his potential rather than what he put on the stat sheet in college. And there is plenty of room for teams to be concerned about his ability to do so.

Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

Five years from now, Monroe Freeling could be the best tackle to come out of this class. Less than a week before the draft, however, he is far less accomplished than the other projected first-round offensive linemen. Freeling is the upside pick in a class that features quite a few plug-and-play starters, which could lead to him slipping into Day 2 territory.

A couple of months ago, it would not have been outlandish whatsoever to project Freeling as a second- or third-round pick. The more evaluators pumped up his potential, the more he popped up among the first players taken at his position. If teams do not want to deal with the bumps in the road that will likely come with his rookie year, those initial projections may prove more accurate.