For as exciting as the Eastern Conference playoff race was this season, you can’t exactly say the same about the West. There are a couple of great teams in the West, but sometimes you just need to get hot at the right time. Which teams in the West are playing their best entering the playoffs and have the best chance to advance deep?
Colorado Avalanche
It’s fair to say that the Colorado Avalanche are the heavy favorites to win the Western Conference. They had a bit of a lull after their torrid start, but rebounded across their final 15 games, going 11-3-1. Their underlying numbers remain terrific, too.
The Avalanche have been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL this season. They have an expected goals share (xG%) well above 50 percent and hovered around 57 percent across their final 15 games. They averaged 3.32 expected goals per 60 minutes over that 15-game stretch and allowed only 2.49 per 60.
Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are the driving forces behind the Avalanche’s success, but this is as complete a roster as you can find this season. They have one of the most stable goaltending duos in Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, and the team’s overall depth may be close to unmatched. It’d be a shock if they don’t at least make it to the Western Conference Final.
Edmonton Oilers
I’m not sure I would call the Edmonton Oilers’ season disappointing. After all, they qualified for the playoffs. But it would be reasonable to say they didn’t quite meet expectations during the regular season. Fortunately, they had a good close to the season, finishing with a 9-4-2 record across their final 15 games.
Most notably, the Oilers’ five-on-five metrics saw some improvement over their final 15 games. They totaled an xG% of 51.35 percent across that stretch and seemed to get their defensive game together, allowing just 2.48 expected goals per 60 minutes.
The one thing working in the Oilers’ favor is that they’re in a favorable part of the Western bracket. They’ll face the Anaheim Ducks in Round 1, then will take on the winner of the Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth series if they advance past the Ducks. Another trip to the Western Conference Final is very much in play.
Los Angeles Kings
I refuse to say the Los Angeles Kings are hot coming into the playoffs, but they are playing better hockey. They finished the season with a 7-3-5 record, which is a points percentage of .633. Their five-on-five numbers have been pretty decent, too.
The Kings totaled an xG% of 53.39 percent across their final 15 games, so it seems interim coach D.J. Smith righted the ship. Unfortunately for the Kings, they’ve drawn the Avalanche as their first-round opponent. I won’t go as far as to say they will get swept, but upsetting the Avalanche will be a tall, tall order.
As mentioned above, the Avalanche’s depth is close to unmatched. The Kings don’t have the star power to compete with the Avalanche, especially with Kevin Fiala out for the playoffs after sustaining a gruesome leg injury in the Olympics. Perhaps Darcy Kuemper can steal a game, maybe two, but a whole series doesn’t seem likely.
Vegas Golden Knights
It’s been an interesting close to the season for the Golden Knights. They fired head coach Bruce Cassidy with eight games remaining in the regular season and have since found their game. They went 8-4-3 across their final 15 games, but were 7-0-1 under John Tortorella, who took over for Cassidy on an interim basis.
The Golden Knights’ five-on-five numbers across their final 15-game stretch were downright scary. They had an xG% of 60.55 percent and were dominant at both ends of the ice. They generated 3.09 expected goals per 60 minutes but allowed only 2.01 per 60. It’s a small sample, but they are trending in the right direction.
The Golden Knights have a formidable first-round opponent in the Mammoth. That series is trending toward toss-up territory for me, even though the Mammoth are a sleeper team. It’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds, but the Golden Knights have a favorable path since they’re in the Pacific section of the playoff bracket.
Dallas Stars
Is this the year the Dallas Stars break through and win the West? They’ll have to get through the Minnesota Wild and most likely the Avalanche just to make the Western Conference Final, but there’s no doubt they have the talent to do so.
The Stars had a decent close to the regular season, going 8-5-2 across their final 15 games. However, their five-on-five numbers raise some concerns. They totaled an xG% of just 48.13 percent across their last 15 contests, but injuries have been an issue. Roope Hintz hasn’t played since March 6 and will miss at least Games 1 and 2 of their first-round series against the Wild. Meanwhile, Miro Heiskanen missed the final few games of the regular season, though he is expected to be available for most of this series, if not all of it.
The Stars have the roster to win the West when healthy, but they need Hintz back soon. I’d attribute their middling five-on-five numbers to injuries, but we’ll see if that’s the case. How they fare in their first couple of games against the Wild will tell us if those five-on-five numbers were worth being more concerned about.
Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth’s overall body of work during the regular season was impressive, but there was a slight dropoff in their five-on-five numbers over their final 15 games. They totaled an xG% of 50.65 percent over that stretch, although they still went 9-6-0.
Their matchup against the Golden Knights is one of the most fascinating of the entire first round. The Mammoth have a better roster on paper, but the Golden Knights are playing excellent hockey coming into the postseason. Sometimes, you just need to be hot at the right time, and that could mean the Mammoth are catching the Golden Knights at the wrong time.
Minnesota Wild
Wild GM Bill Guerin went all-in earlier this season when he acquired Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks. That trade paid dividends and helped transform the Wild into a legitimate threat in the West. They had some middling results to close the season, going 8-7-0 across their final 15 games, but they still seem to be trending in the right direction.
Even though the Wild were just above .500 over their final 15 games, they totaled an impressive xG% of 56.42 percent. That’s about nine percent higher than their actual goals share. One reason for that is that the Wild had a five-on-five save percentage of just .885 across their final 15 games. They will need that to come around quickly, because even with the Stars missing Hintz, they have plenty of firepower.
It’s unfortunate that the Wild have to take on the Stars in the first round. That should be a matchup saved for later in the postseason, but that’s part of what you get with this nonsensical playoff format. At the very least, it should make for an interesting first round.
Anaheim Ducks
It’s been a great season for the Ducks. They took massive strides forward and broke a long playoff drought that dated back to the 2017-18 season. They’re coming into the playoffs limping, though. They finished the season with a 6-6-3 record, although their five-on-five numbers were fairly solid.
The Ducks totaled an xG% of 52.46 percent across their final 15 games and did so playing a high-event style of hockey. That could make for an entertaining series with the Oilers, who are no strangers to firewagon hockey. I don’t see the Ducks winning that series, but their high-powered offense could present some challenges for the Oilers.
TierMaking the West
Obviously, the Avalanche are clear Cup contenders in the West, but who else joins them?
Bona Fide Stanley Cup Contenders:
If the Stars can get Hintz back, they have the horses to compete with the Avalanche. Their five-on-five game isn’t where it needs to be for most Stanley Cup contenders, but we’ll see if they can get right with a healthy roster.
Cup Potential:
The Oilers and Golden Knights have flawed teams, but their path to the Western Conference Final is not difficult. They’re two of the most experienced teams in the playoffs, so you cannot rule them out. Plus, the Golden Knights may be peaking at the right time.
Most Likely Not Their Year:
The Wild have a good roster, but to get through the Stars, then the Avalanche is a tall task. Kudos to them if they can pull it off, but I don’t love their chances. Best of luck to the Kings against the Avalanche because they’re probably going to need it.
While the Mammoth are a sneaky team to win a round or two, making the Stanley Cup Final would be a shock. You could say the same about the Ducks as well. The Western Conference isn’t as deep as the East, and who’s a bona fide Stanley Cup contender is much clearer.
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