For the ninth time in their last 10 rounds of playoff hockey, the Dallas Stars are on the brink of elimination as they prepare for Game 6 against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night, down 3-2 in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The good news is that they are 5-3 when their backs are against the wall. The bad news is that they are 0-2 when they are up against it in their last two Game 6s. Does any of that matter? I’m not sure, but the Stars have plenty of experience to draw from over the last three seasons, and they’re going to need every ounce of it on Thursday night.
Yes, the power play has been great, and they can’t score 5-on-5. But here are three other keys for the Stars to live another day and force a Game 7 on Saturday.
Experience Is on the Stars’ Side
There were many points of discussion before the playoffs started and throughout this series. The fact that the Stars have been to three-straight Conference Finals and that the Wild haven’t won a round since 2015 are two of them, and while the Wild have had many players come and go since that series against the St. Louis Blues, the core of this Stars team has been relatively the same over the last three postseasons.
Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell have all played between 51 and 61 playoff games together between 2022-23 and today, while Jake Oettinger has started 63 games in that same span. Matt Duchene and Sam Steel have both played 42, and while Radek Faksa was not with the Stars last season, he has played 32 dating back to his previous time in Dallas. According to tonight’s projected lineup, Michael Bunting is the only player lacing them up who was not on the Stars for last season’s playoff run.
“We’re really good at staying even keel and staying present and worrying about what’s at hand, and not what’s coming or what’s behind us,” Duchene said of his team’s experience. “Even young guys have learned how to be that (way) from experiences they’ve had. I tell them all the time, they’re so lucky to be on a team like this and have these experiences (when they’re) young. You learn so much. You don’t get that unless you’re in it. And yeah, we’re good at that.” (from“Ten stats that explain why the Stars are on the brink – and why there might still be hope” – Mark Lazerus, The Athletic, Apr. 30, 2026)
The Wild have done an excellent job of taking away the Stars’ strengths throughout this series. From zone exits to zone entries, to eliminating time and space, to getting in front of everything that moves, they’ve figured something out when it comes to shutting the Stars down. However, the one massive advantage that the Stars have over the Wild in this spot is experience. In that same span, 2022-23 to now, the core of this Wild team has played as many as 17 games together and has not been able to close out a series.
Maybe it’s the Wild’s time to shine and the Stars’ time to step back. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that only one team knows what this moment is like.
“That’s one luxury we have here in Dallas, just a lot of these guys are battle tested and have been in these tough situations before, starting right from our captain (Benn) and moving on down,” head coach Glen Gulutzan said, who, as an assistant coach for the Edmonton Oilers has faced playoff battles of his own. “So, you lean on that heavily. You saw that this morning as we did our first kind of little video session, just staying in the right mindset. You can tell the group is confident but not cocky and is idling at a high level but not too high.”
Get Pucks to the Net
Every article on the internet about this series has talked about Dallas’ inability to score 5-on-5, so we’re not going to get into that too much here. There are underlying numbers to support that they have actually played pretty well even strength; they just haven’t been able to execute. There are also numbers to support the opposite. Whatever way you slice it, they can’t score to save their lives.
There are two encouraging and equally-frustrating stats when it comes to the Stars so far through five games.
The Stars have 43 high-danger scoring 5-on-5, which is first in the NHL throughout the first round. They have been able to create, but they just can’t score.
The more frustrating 5-on-5 stat is that the Stars have a 265-231 advantage in shot attempts, but have had 81 of their shots blocked and have missed the net 68 times. The Wild blocked 26 shots in Game 5 alone.
“We were working,” Rantanen said after Game 5. “They were blocking a lot of shots tonight. That’s the difference, too, sometimes. We get there, but (the) high forward or D has to work a little bit more to get shots through. Even if it doesn’t go hit the net, at least get (it) past the first guy. Bunch of times today, maybe we got it into the first guy.” (From “Ten stats that explain why the Stars are on the brink – and what there might still be hope’”
Gulutzan echoed Rantanen’s sentiment.
“I think with us that little extra one degree of execution, one foot — it’s a one-foot league — putting the pass on the tape in a better shot position for us, hitting the net instead of missing and hitting the glass,” Gulutzan said. “Those are big differences in a game. One rebound can change a game.”
It Takes Everyone
The Stars have five goal scorers through five games, and they all happen to be on their first power-play unit. We all know the go-to players — Robertson, Johnston, Rantanen, and Duchene — but the Stars have other players who are able to break a game open, and those are the ones that need to find a way to do it tonight.
Mavrik Bourque started off the series really well, but has been less noticeable the last few games, and the same can be said for Sam Steel. Justin Hryckowian was a real energy guy for Dallas this season, and the Wild have been able to neutralize him, for the most part. While Oskar Back and Radek Faksa have been extremely useful on the penalty kill, they’ve been relatively ineffective on the fourth line offensively, along with Colin Blackwell, who is capable of big moments in his own right.
Robertson, Johnston, and Rantanen played almost 10 minutes more than the rest of the forwards in Game 5. I know that has a lot to do with the power play, but it might not be a bad idea to even out the playing time a bit and let the grittier third and fourth lines drag the Wild into a different kind of fight than the Stars have presented so far. The addition of Bunting to the third line should help as well.
Game 7 on Saturday?
Well, Stars fans, see you on the other side. I hope that we’ll be breaking down a gutsy Game-6 win tomorrow before we get you all ready for Game 7 on Saturday. This was always going to be a long series, and someone was always going to be down 3-2. I thought the Stars were going to win in seven games, which means whoever is down before Game 6 has to win for my prediction to be correct.
Unfortunately, it’s the Stars who are down, but these moments are what the playoffs are all about. Hopefully, we get to do it all over again on Saturday.
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