The NHL playoff field is set. While some matchups in the West still need determining, we know who the 16 teams will be. The favorites are obvious: the Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, etc. But which teams could be sleepers and have the potential to play spoiler?
Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators have more or less been playing playoff hockey for the last couple of months. They’ve had to claw and scrape for every point to get back in the playoff picture, but they probably should never have been in that position. Even though it was quite the climb to secure their second consecutive playoff berth, they’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL.
At this point, no one game will drastically change a team’s five-on-five numbers. The Senators will head into the playoffs with an expected goals share (xG%) of 54.39 percent or thereabouts. That will be a top-five rate in the NHL, and their xG% is about identical over their last 25 games.
What’s most impressive about the Senators’ five-on-five game is that they generate plenty of offense, but don’t give any of it back. They’re creating 2.93 expected goals per 60 minutes over their last 25 games while allowing only 2.46. Being a strong five-on-five team is not the be-all and end-all for playoff success, but it’s usually quite predictive.
The biggest question mark for the Senators will be goaltending. It’s why they sank in the standings during the middle of the season. Linus Ullmark has had one of the worst seasons of his career, totaling a save percentage of .891 while allowing 12.8 goals above expected. However, he has been better down the stretch, accumulating an SV% of .902 across his last 15 games. If he can give the Senators .902 goaltending or better in the playoffs, they can advance one or two rounds.
Matchups also play a significant role in determining a team’s success in the NHL playoffs. Unfortunately for the Senators, they’re heading for a first-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes. Still, don’t discount the Senators pulling off the upset. They have identical five-on-five numbers to the Hurricanes, and Ullmark can be an advantage over Brandon Bussi or Frederik Andersen if he gives the Senators average to above-average goaltending. They’re a good team and should not be slept on this postseason.
Utah Mammoth
I wouldn’t go as far as to say the Utah Mammoth are the Senators of the Western Conference, but there are some similarities. One) The Mammoth have been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL this season, totaling an xG% of 52.62 percent, ranked sixth in the NHL. There’s been a bit of a dip over their last 25 games; they have just a 50.22 xG% over that stretch. Regardless, their five-on-five game suggests they can be a menace in the Western Conference.
Two) The Mammoth have one of the NHL’s more underrated goaltenders in Karel Vejmelka. His save percentage of .897 may not suggest so, but he’s saved 8.5 goals above expected, ranking him 19th among qualified goaltenders. They also have the top-end talent up front to match up with some of their potential opponents in the first round.
Related: Utah Mammoth Players Share Thoughts on Clinching Franchise’s First Playoff Berth
As of now, the Mammoth may be heading for a first-round tilt with the Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights have been playing better since hiring John Tortorella as their interim head coach, but they’re still vulnerable due to their goaltending. Carter Hart has a .925 SV% across his last five games, so perhaps he’s rounding into form as the playoffs begin. However, his overall body of work this season is not great, and the same is true of Adin Hill.
There’s also an outside chance that the Mammoth draw the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the playoffs. That might be a more favorable draw for the Mammoth than the Golden Knights, even though they’d have to face Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That’s because you could argue the Oilers’ goaltending situation is even more unstable than the Golden Knights. Either way, the Mammoth have the pieces to pull off the upset in Round 1.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers’ climb into a playoff spot wasn’t as drastic as the Senators’, but they made up quite a bit of ground in a short span. On the surface, their five-on-five numbers for the season are more or less pedestrian. They have an xG% of 50.7 percent, but their numbers over the last 25 games show why they stole the third playoff spot in the Metro from the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Flyers have an xG% of 52.43 percent over their last 25 games, although it’s been a much lower-event brand of hockey compared to the Senators and Mammoth. They’re allowing 2.22 expected goals defensively but generating just 2.43. Perhaps that will act as a good counter to the higher-event Pittsburgh Penguins, their first-round opponent.
Additionally, the Flyers have been getting strong goaltending to close the season. Their five-on-five save percentage of .929 ranks first in the NHL over the last 25 games. We’ll see whether they can sustain that against the Penguins, but it would give them an edge over their in-state rivals. Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner don’t inspire a ton of confidence in net for the Penguins, and that’s why the Flyers could pull off the upset and make some noise.
What About the Golden Knights?
I thought about including the Golden Knights as a sleeper, but are they really a sleeper? Would anyone be surprised if they made a run? They have been playing quite well since Tortorella took over as head coach. They have an xG% of 61.38 percent in seven games with Tortorella behind the bench. It’s not a coincidence that they’re 6-0-1 in those games, too. Don’t be surprised if they upset the apple cart in the West, although calling them a sleeper might be a stretch.
These should be one of the more interesting playoffs in recent memory. There are five new teams in the postseason in the East alone. Don’t be surprised if we see an upset or two early on with these teams looking to announce that they’ve arrived.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
