Dallas Stars Need to Find More 5-on-5 Offense to Advance Past the Wild – The Hockey Writers – Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars are in a tightly contested series with the Minnesota Wild. That’s not a surprise. They were two of the best teams in the Western Conference during the regular season.

The Stars are in a good spot, especially since they’ve been without Roope Hintz for the first four games. However, some concerns are emerging heading into Game 5 tonight in Dallas. Special teams have been a significant factor, with the Stars carrying a heavy advantage on the power play. But that can only get you so far, and it’s why they need to find a spark at five-on-five.

Wild Have Limited the Stars at 5-on-5

Special teams have been one of the biggest stories of this series, but the Stars’ lack of five-on-five scoring should not go unnoticed. The Wild have outscored the Stars 9-3 at five-on-five, and it could prove to be a deciding factor in Games 5 and 6 if the Stars can’t find more scoring at that game state.

Hintz’s absence is a factor, but the Stars should still be able to create more five-on-five offense than they have in this series. They’re generating just 2.16 expected goals per 60 minutes, which is well off the 2.57 expected goals per 60 they averaged during the regular season. That latter number was only in the middle of the pack, but still, there’s obviously room for improvement.

It hasn’t been all bad for the Stars at five-on-five. Even though they could stand to create more quality looks, they have been a bit unlucky. They’ve generated 8.01 expected goals at five-on-five, but, as mentioned, have only scored three actual goals. They’re shooting just three percent at five-on-five in this series, so perhaps they’re due for some better shooting luck.

Head coach Glen Gulutzan seemed to acknowledge as much after the Game 4 loss to the Wild in Minnesota.

“We couldn’t get any puck luck (5-on-5),” Gulutzan said to reporters after the overtime loss to the Wild on Saturday. “We’re going to have to start to get some sticks on some of those pucks because both sides are contested. We just got to keep working to make our own puck luck out there.”

Gulutzan is right. The Stars need to look for more redirects and hope to get some more fortuitous bounces. Make your own puck luck, but it’s not just that. The Stars do need more from some of their top players at five-on-five. They can’t rely solely on the power play, no matter how much of an advantage it’s been through the first four games.

Rantanen & Duchene Need to Level Up

The only player who has come through for the Stars at five-on-five is Jason Robertson. He has two of the team’s three five-on-five goals, while Wyatt Johnston has the other. Robertson has been one of the team’s best chance creators at five-on-five as well; his five high-danger chances are second to Mavrik Bourque.

Speaking of Bourque, if there’s a player who’s due for a five-on-five goal or two in this series, it’s him. He has 12 scoring chances, seven high-dangers, and has generated 1.32 individual expected goals. He has been getting some of the best looks on the team, but just hasn’t found the back of the net.

Getting some five-on-five goals from Bourque (and Johnston, too) would go a long way, but the Stars really need Mikko Rantanen and Matt Duchene to find their games. Rantanen has just five shots on goal and one high-danger chance at five-on-five. That’s not good enough for a player of his caliber. Duchene has been even worse at five-on-five, as he has just one shot on goal and no high-danger chances.

Rantanen’s shot chart at five-on-five is a bit alarming. He’s not generating anything from the slot and inner slot, and the one quality chance he’s had was a missed shot. The Wild deserve credit for taking him out of his game, but a player as good as he is should be able to find some more space in the slot:

Let’s compare Rantanen’s shot chart with Robertson’s, and you’ll notice that there’s a significant difference. As you can see below, Robertson is getting plenty of decent looks in the slot and inner slot, and he’s getting shots on net. The Stars need Rantanen to begin getting the looks that Robertson is because that will help them find more scoring at five-on-five:

The Stars need more from Duchene, too, but the key is getting Rantanen going. We know what he’s capable of when he’s on his game, and while he’s been dominant on the power play in this series, he still very much has another level he can reach at five-on-five.

Stars Have No Time to Waste

The Stars’ five-on-five numbers are a mixed bag. On one hand, they are underperforming their expected numbers. Players like Bourque should probably have another goal or two at that game state. On the other hand, as a team, they aren’t generating a ton of quality looks at five-on-five. That’s partly because Rantanen and Duchene have underwhelmed when the game is at full strength.

It’s a best-of-three series now, so there’s no time to waste. The Stars need them to find their game at five-on-five in Game 5 tonight. That could be the key to unlocking some more scoring at five-on-five and not having to rely on the power play to score multiple times a game. If they can get it done, they can put the Wild on the brink ahead of Game 6.

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