Dodgers vs. Padres: Three things to know as NL West rivals face off

One of Major League Baseball’s most compelling rivalries of the current era makes its 2026 debut starting Monday. We speak of the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers, of course, are the back-to-back World Series champions, and they have legitimate designs on becoming MLB’s first three-peat since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. As for the Padres, they’re off to a strong start under first-year manager Craig Stammen and aiming to make the playoffs for the third straight year and the fifth time in the last seven. Still eluding them, though, is that first World Series title in franchise history. Going into Monday night’s series opener at Petco Park, the Dodgers (29-18) lead the Padres (28-28) in the National League West standings by a mere half-game. At the same time, the Padres are presently occupying the top wild-card spot in the National League.

The Dodgers come in having won five in a row, and that includes a rivalry weekend sweep of the Angels in which they outscored their L.A.-area rivals by a combined tally of 31-3. At the same time, superstar Shohei Ohtani has shown signs of heating up and finding his accustomed level at the plate following some uncharacteristic struggles. He’s eight for his last 17 with a homer. Across the way, the Padres come fresh off a Vedder Cup sweep of the Seattle Mariners.

It’s May, yes, but this could be one of those years and one of those races in which every game winds up mattering. That’s to say nothing of the wild-card situation, which will of course be keenly relevant to the eventual runner-up in the NL West. So to set the scene for one of MLB’s leading rivalries and a clash of playoff hopefuls, let’s explore some things to know about this installment of Dodgers-Padres.

First up, though, are the essentials for this crucial three-game set. Select games can be streamed regionally on fubo (Try for free): 

As you can see, it’s a clash of right-handers in every game. Indeed, Justin Wrobleski is the only lefty in either rotation at the moment. On that point, let’s note that the Dodgers this season rank second in MLB in wOBA versus right-handed pitchers, while the Padres rank just 24th. Now let’s have a look at those things to know.

The Dodgers’ rotation depth is being challenged right now

We’ve gotten accustomed to the Dodgers in recent years trotting out ace or near-ace after ace or near-ace when it comes to their rotation. That’s not the case at the moment, and it’s a predictable reason: injuries. The Dodgers are always willing to take risks on previously injury-prone hurlers as long as the stuff and rate-based results pass muster. That’s worked out for them more often than not, but right now, two of their best starters are on the injured list. Tyler Glasnow has been sidelined since the first week of May with lower back spasms, and he’d been pretty well dominant across his first seven starts of 2026. As well, lefty and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell is back on the IL after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow. Snell’s latest malady came after making only one start following his return from shoulder fatigue, which had sidelined him for the entire season until that May 9 start. As well, starters Gavin Stone and Landon Knack are also on the IL and have yet to pitch for the Dodgers this season. As such, manager Dave Roberts is going with a traditional five-man rotation right now, even though the Dodgers would prefer a six-man arrangement.

Compounding matters is that Yamamoto, L.A.’s Monday starter, has been struggling of late. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed 15 runs in 24 ⅓ innings. In his most recent start, he allowed three home runs to the Giants, otherwise one of the least powerful offenses in MLB. Ohtani is a certifiable Cy Young contender this season, but Sheehan will come into his Tuesday start with, as you see above, a fairly lofty ERA.

Speaking of rotations, the series could hinge on what kind of start the Padres get from Canning. He’s made just three starts this season and gotten battered in his last two. Stammen could opt for the early hook on Tuesday and make full use of the Padres’ dominant and deep bullpen. 

The Padres have probably been lucky so far in 2026

The Pads right now are on pace for 99 wins, which would be a franchise record. However, their current 28-18 record is backed up by a much more modest run differential of plus-7. That means their “deserved” record is 24-22. Outplaying one’s record by four games at this relatively early hour is a notable thing. It’s also a potentially concerning thing. If you look at third-order standings, which assign a deserved record based on underlying performance and schedule strength, you’ll find that the Padres have a deserved record of 22-24, rounded off, which is worse than the third-order record of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, the standings are what matter, and the Padres are thriving there. The concern, though, is that things like run differential-based record and third-order record do a better job of predicting a team’s future performance than actual record does.

In the Padres’ case, they’re 6-4 in one-run games and 2-0 in extra-inning games, but just 6-10 in games decided by five or more runs. They’d do well to play up to their record in the coming days and weeks. 

The Dodgers have dominated this series throughout much of recent history

The Dodgers have generally had their way with the Padres. L.A. leads the all-time head-to-head series by a tally of 532-431-1 (.552) in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they hold a 7-5 edge over San Diego. That’s dominance, especially as rivalries go. It’s especially been the case in recent years. Have a look at the Dodgers record against the Padres in the regular season going back to 2010:

Overall, the Dodgers are 175-99 (.639) against the Padres since 2010. That’s a 104-win pace across 162. Of those 16 season series listed above, the Dodgers have won 14 of them. Again, that’s dominance. Past isn’t necessarily prelude in baseball, so the Padres can flip the script at any moment. There’s almost no chance they ever make the overall series competitive, but you can be assured the current players involved in this rivalry don’t much care about that. It’s all about the games in front of them. 

Prediction: The surging Dodger offense and better profile against right-handed starters allow the Dodgers to eke out a 2-1 series win in this one and ever so slightly grow their lead in the division. The Padres, though, will strike first behind King in the opener.