NBA playoff stock watch: Which recent top draft picks are rising and falling?

The NBA Draft is less than two months away and one of the things you will hear with increased frequency between now and then is about the search for talent who can impact playoff basketball.

The playoffs are different from the regular season in the NBA. The intensity is heightened, the physicality and officiating evolve, matchups become critical and rotations are shortened in order to cut out anyone who is getting exposed.

Already this postseason, we’ve seen a number of young, previously celebrated draft prospects make major impressions, both good and bad. In fact, seven of the nine top-3 picks from the last three draft classes got some sort of postseason experience this season. Here’s a look at whether their stock went up, down, or stayed neutral.

Stock up

Heading into the 2023 NBA Draft, people talked about Victor Wembanyama as if he were a totally unprecedented prospect. The best since Lebron. A truly generational talent. The level of hyperbole was absolutely off the charts. Three years later, it’s almost incredible that he has lived up to absolutely everything — and then some. At 22 years old, he expedited even the most optimistic timelines and has made the Spurs a 60-win team and one of the favorites to win this year’s NBA title.

It becomes clearer with each passing week, month, and maybe even game, that Wemby is in a category all by himself. It’s true that we had never seen a player with his combination of size, bend, skill, and defensive dominance. It’s also true that, even now, he shocks us on an almost nightly basis with what he is able to do at his size. He’s handling the ball, coming off pin-downs and curling screens as if he’s a guard. All the while, his sheer presence is forcing the Blazers into a jump-shooting contest that they just aren’t equipped to win. It’s no coincidence that the one game the Blazers won came when Wemby played only 12 minutes before being sidelined by a concussion.

As for the game he missed, well, that brings us to another stock-riser, his teammate Dylan Harper. Yes, he’s had inconsistencies this postseason, particularly in the games when Wemby has been there from start to finish, but the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft went off in Game 3, putting up 27 points on just 12 shots. It was a microcosm for some of the biggest themes surrounding his rookie season. His long-term potential was on full display, showcasing his creation, pick-and-roll navigation and rim pressure. It also illustrated what we’ve been saying since long before Harper arrived in the NBA: when he makes shots, it opens up absolutely everything for him. Harper was 4 for 5 from behind the arc in that game and when defenders are forced to close out, it led to straight-line drives and easy reads. Maybe most importantly, especially amidst the backdrop of Kon Knueppel’s huge rookie season, it was a reminder that Harper’s production this year has been contextual. He just hasn’t had the same volume or opportunity for individual stats that others, on less competitive teams, have had. When he got that, he showed what he’s capable of. When Wemby returned, he went back to playing a more confined role without objection.

Stock down

Zaccharie Risacher, the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, has been unplayable for the Hawks in these playoffs. In fact, his play had been trending in the wrong direction for several months. In January, he was averaging 26 minutes per game. That declined to 23 in February, then 18 in March, 15 in the last five regular-season games in April, and now a total of six minutes in four games, including two DNPs. What makes Risacher’s disappearance sting even more for the Atlanta front office is that it has come amidst some brilliance from Stephon Castle in San Antonio, who’s averaging 22 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds for the Spurs so far, while showing real growth as a shooter and being a standout on the defensive end of the floor.

Adding insult to injury, Castle is from the Atlanta area. He went fourth in the 2024 Draft, just three picks after the Hawks took Risacher. Now, that was a draft that seemingly lacked a prototypical No. 1 pick, but there were also top picks who made it clear they wanted to be elsewhere that year (Alex Sarr being the most notable example). The bottom line is that in retrospect, the Hawks botched this pick big time. Castle hasn’t just proven to be the superior talent; he’s a local product and would have taken the young core of Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson to a whole new level.

Stock is also trending down for Reed Sheppard. The Rockets avoided being swept by a Lakers team missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves on Sunday night and Sheppard had his best game of the series with 17 points on 6 for 12 shooting, including 4 for 7 from behind the arc. He also had 3 assists against just one turnover. The three games prior were disastrous, though. He shot a combined 12 for 45 from the floor, including 9 for 30 from behind the arc, and committed 9 turnovers, most notably the late-game poke from behind that led to Lebron James’ three-pointer to force overtime in Game 3. You never want to blame an entire loss on one single play, but that was arguably the biggest blunder of Houston’s season.

The defense has also been problematic, to say the least. When Sheppard hasn’t been making threes, it’s been counterproductive for Houston to have him on the floor, which is a big part of why Ime Udoka limited him to just 11 minutes in Game 2 when he started 0 for 4 from the floor. He gets hunted and targeted again and again. This goes back to one of the biggest misconceptions about Sheppard, which largely impacted his draft stock three years ago. His steal rate and total stocks are always terrific, if not off the charts, but his footspeed and ability to keep people in front are sub-par, to say the least. In other words, he has great hands and is a playmaking defender, but is otherwise a liability. It was debatable a few years ago, but it’s clear as can be right now. So, the bottom line in playoff basketball is that you have to hope that the offense — basically, the shooting and the spacing that comes from his gravity — is good enough to offset the defense. That doesn’t mean he’s not a productive NBA player for a long time, but it means his role is confined. And again, with Castle having gone just one pick later in 2023, this is one that Houston got wrong.

Up and down

A handful of youngsters opened the playoffs with big outings, only to have their production fall off shortly afterward. VJ Edgecombe went for 30 in Game 2 and led the Sixers to their only win of the series so far. Scoot Henderson not only had 31 in Game 2 for the Blazers, but he opened the series with a very solid 18 points and 3 assists and then put up 21 in Game 3.

Unfortunately, both have not only failed to sustain that level of production, but they’ve fallen off in major ways. Edgecombe has a combined 16 points in 77 minutes in the last two games, shooting 7 for 26 from the floor, 0 for 11 from behind the arc, and getting to the free-throw line just twice. Henderson is just 2 for 12 from the floor in the last three halves of basketball, and dropped a bagel on Sunday, going scoreless in 27 minutes on 0 for 7 shooting from the floor.

Everyone makes adjustments in the playoffs and no player can hope to do the exact same thing throughout the course of a series. If you don’t have counters or contingency plans, or if you get shaken mentally and thrown off your game, you’re going to get exposed. Sometimes, it can be a sign of things to come in the future or a corollary to a lack of upside. Other times, it’s just about getting that first taste of playoff experience.

In Edgecombe’s case, I would chalk it up to the latter. While his regular season, like his playoffs, was filled with highs and lows, there is a general sense of optimism surrounding his overall development. Always known for his elite athleticism and competitiveness, his overall guard skills evolved faster than expected this season. While the shooting decline in the playoffs was preceded by a slump late in the regular season, he was at 38% from behind the arc through his first 60 games. That’s way ahead of schedule, and these most recent results are only bound to further inspire his well-known work ethic. The bottom line is that we knew the shooting and overall guard tools were his swing skills, and while they’ve bitten him in the postseason, they are still collectively ahead of where most expected.

As for Henderson, the long-term outlook may be less optimistic, and this isn’t even about the sunk opportunity cost of taking him ahead of Amen Thompson (No. 4) and even Brandon Miller (No. 3). Yes, there were important signs of growth earlier in the playoffs. He had slowed down, was playing at different speeds and shooting the ball well. Even amidst those most optimistic moments, though, there were still some glaring concerns. He’s gotten to the rim a total of eight times in four games so far in this series. Worse, he’s handed out a total of six assists. The promise of Scoot’s potential three years ago was all about his burst, power and explosiveness as a lead guard. Comparisons to the likes of Derrick Rose were perceived as relatively fair. Three years later, we’re now seeing a player who has not been able to maximize those athletic gifts and instead sees his impact tied to whether or not he’s making shots. So, while his pace and shooting have both improved, it robs him of what he was supposed to do best and the root of his perceived high upside. Combine that with the fact that his assist rate has actually declined in each of his three NBA seasons and this just doesn’t look like the player we expected, even despite two-and-a-half very strong games to start the series.