NFL mock draft based on betting odds: 2026 first-round projections

He’s -20000 to be picked first, and he’s going to be picked first.

This has gone back and forth over the past few days, with Reese being the heavy favorite on Monday, David Bailey moving to a moderate favorite on Tuesday, and Reese retaking the lead around midday Wednesday while I was putting together data for this exercise. We’ll see if this is the final momentum shift or if there are still developments to come.

Odds are tight here between Reese, Bailey and Jeremiyah Love, and with Bailey and Love both +190, we’re going to go edge rusher here for a cleaner top four. Reese and Bailey are still -4000 to be top-five picks, while Love is just -400 in that market, which is a good tiebreaker.

Love seems almost certain to go anywhere from third to fifth, and even with the buzz connecting him to the Cardinals, he’s still the -105 favorite to be this pick. Sonny Styles is next at +250 as of writing, while Bailey is +475 and Reese is +650.

We’re going to pass on Styles here as he’s -150 to go Over 5.5 as laid out in the intro. Not only is Tyson a logical fit after acing his workout, but he’s also the next prospect on the over/under board juiced to the Under — the next up behind Styles on the top-five board and the second favorite to be the fifth pick. Styles is the favorite to be the pick here, but only at +190, so we’re giving more weight to the market’s over/under.

Mauigoa is only +600 to be this pick, which is behind Styles, Carnell Tate and Spencer Fano. However, he is still the favorite to be the first offensive lineman selected and has much shorter odds to be a top-10 pick than Fano. Carnell Tate is -155 to go Over 7.5 as of writing, and Styles does not make a ton of sense for Cleveland. So Mauigoa it is.

Styles’ mini slide ends here, where he’s the third favorite behind Tate (who again is juiced Over 7.5, so not an option for us) and Love, who is long gone. A team interested in Styles would be well-served reaching out to Cleveland if he makes it out of the top five, and the Commanders could also be a trade-down candidate if they’d rather go receiver.

Tate is +450 to be the eighth pick versus +425 for Mansoor Delane, but the latter is 12th in odds to go top 10 (when factoring in the players not on the board expected to go in top five), so he’s not as good an option for us here. Tyson is the favorite to go eighth at +200, but he went off the board a few picks ago.

Bain is -400 to go Over 8.5, so this is the first spot where we can slot him in, and while that massive number could mean a slide down the board, he’s still slightly favored over Delane — who is cofavored at ninth with Bain — to be a top-10 pick. The Chiefs are the first team that we have positional odds for their first pick, but with the top-four favorites between +250 and +320, they don’t help much.

Downs is a candidate to go fifth overall, where he’s tied for third favorite with Love, and favored to go 10th, so you’d have to figure he’d be the pick here to wrap up our top-10 market. Since he’s -125 to go Over 9.5, we didn’t want to slot him in earlier than here.

Fano is a cofavorite to go sixth and seems to be an option for the Chiefs and Giants as well. But his top-10 odds were just behind Bain, so he finds himself available here, where he’s tied with Mauigoa as the favorite to go 11th at +425.

Delane is just +600 to be the pick here, but that makes him the favorite, and he’ll appeal to the Cowboys if he’s available considering their defensive needs. However, he could go anywhere in the back half of the top 10 or even 11th to Miami as well, explaining his longer odds as the favorite.

Lemon and the Rams have been a popular pairing throughout mock draft season, and he’s the +250 favorite to be the pick here. The Rams are also +100 to make receiver their first pick, with offensive line next at +220.

Ioane is -310 to go Under 14.5, so this is his absolute floor in this exercise. He’s also the favorite for this pick at +230, with his next lowest odds at No. 10 (+500) in that market. The Ravens are +130 favorites to go with an offensive lineman first as well.

Another popular pairing, and one that’s needed for us, as Sadiq is slightly favored to go Under 15.5 at -120. He is the favorite to be the 15th pick at +300, and while Tampa Bay is +125 to go defensive line/edge rusher first, the player they’re most connected to, Ahkeem Mesidor, has been pegged by the market right around the 25th or 26th pick.

Our first trade results in Proctor being -195 to go Under 16.5 but not considered a match specifically for the Jets at 16th, where the market has him at +1500 — tied for ninth in odds behind several players still on the board. So the Eagles send Nos. 23 and 68 to move up, as they are -200 to take an offensive lineman first and know Detroit would take Proctor next.

Freeling is a fine consolation prize for the Lions, and he’s the second favorite behind Proctor to be the 17th overall pick. The Lions are -380 to go offensive line first, and Freeling is -250 to be taken before No. 20, so this is an easy pick.

This is the first spot where we could take Thieneman, who is -215 to go Over 17.5, and the Vikings are a rare team favored to take safety first at +130. Another oft-mocked pick that makes a lot of sense in this exercise.

Cooper isn’t going to be on the board for the Browns at No. 24, as he’s -160 to go Under 23.5, and while the Panthers could stick and take him, their positional odds board is a bit all over the place with offensive line the favorite at +225. So they get picks Nos. 24, 107 and 149 to move back and watch the board develop.

Faulk is the cofavorite here with Akheem Mesidor, who we’ve said is closer to 25 than 20 in the market as of this writing. Faulk is also slightly more likely to be a Round 1 pick at -700 versus -650 for Mesidor, making him our selection for Dallas.

While Caleb Lomu is +900 to be the 21st pick and Miller is +950, I’m putting more weight on the latter being -1600 to go in Round 1 versus -350 for Lomu. The Steelers are -105 to go offensive lineman first with receiver at +200, so that’s the direction we’re looking.

My initial run through the data had Mesidor as a slight favorite to go Over 25.5, which locked him out of the top 25, but that changed while working on this piece with him moving as a slight favorite to go Under 25.5. That makes this a good landing spot as the second favorite to go 22nd behind Faulk, with the Chargers -120 to go defensive lineman/edge rusher first.

The Jets pick up an extra second-round pick to move down before taking their receiver, and this is the market’s range for Concepcion, as he’s -130 to go Under 24.5. He could be in play for either the Eagles or Browns (with the next pick) if they don’t trade up.

We need to find a spot for McNeil-Warren, who is -260 to be a first-round pick. With the Panthers a candidate to go safety at No. 19 and no clear favorite for their position, we’re going to make that the match.

I initially had Lawrence at No. 22 before Mesidor’s shift inside the top 25. With the Bears -120 to take a defensive lineman/edge rusher first, the last EDGE on our top-32 board is a good fit here.

The Bills don’t have an edge rusher/defensive lineman available in our top 32, and we’re looking for a trade-up spot for Simpson, who is -270 to go Over 24.5 but the last player in our top 32 based on Round 1 odds. A swap of second- and third-round picks in 2027 makes sense for the value, but if the Cardinals want to stick to this year, they could offer Nos. 34, 65 and 183 for this pick and No. 91.

Despite the Trent Williams extension, the 49ers are still favored to go offensive lineman first at -125. We’re opting for Iheanachor, who is -450 to be a Round 1 pick, over Caleb Lomu, who is just -350 to be a first-rounder.

A clear match here with the Texans -145 to go offensive lineman first and our final tackle left on the board. This leaves us with three corners and one receiver in the top 32 according to the Round 1 market, so we’ll have to match those players accordingly from here on out.

Hood and Jermod McCoy are both -380 to be Round 1 picks, with the latter at -150 to go Over 28.5. That will make them our next two picks in either order with the Chiefs and Dolphins passing on Mansoor Delane in the top part of the draft.

The Dolphins get the higher upside with the bigger medical risk in McCoy, a gamble they need to pay off as they look for stars to rebuild their roster.

The Patriots don’t have a positional market at DraftKings, so we’re left deciding between a receiver and corner, with the former making more sense for their depth chart. Boston could go a little higher than this as he’s just -125 to go Over 26.5, and the Chiefs and Dolphins both make some sense after neither went receiver earlier.

The final player left on our top 32 board is Johnson, and the Seahawks are favored to go cornerback first at +155. This is certainly a trade-down spot as well, especially if Simpson is still on the board, but with Johnson at -250 to go in Round 1 and no one else available shorter than -190, he’s our pick here.