Thunder vs. Spurs: Five big questions that will decide the Western Conference Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are about to square off for the 2026 Western Conference crown, and with that, the NBA’s next great rivalry has officially arrived. We’ve known it was coming. We know it’s not going anywhere for maybe the next decade as set up as these teams are for the long run. This will be absolute theatre. Let’s get into five big questions heading into the series we’ve all been waiting for. 

1. Can SGA’s scoring level back up?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely about to win his second straight MVP. He has averaged well north of 30 PPG the last two regular seasons, and he averaged 29.9 in last year’s playoffs. He’s at 29.1 PPG so far in these playoffs, but the bulk of that number comes from his first-round explosion vs. the Suns. He “only” averaged 24.5 against the Lakers and even that number was juiced by a big 35-point performance in the clincher. 

I don’t think that’s going to be enough against the Spurs, even with Jalen Williams set to return. It’s a fair bet that a lot of OKC’s peripheral production, or at least efficiency, could take a hit as Victor Wembanyama forces a larger chunk of their offense outside of the paint (Chet Holmgren, for instance, only averaged 10.5 points on 38.7% shooting against the Spurs in the regular season), and SGA is going to have to pick up the slack.

I think the Thunder need something very close to 30 PPG in this series from SGA, and even that might be conservative. Can he do that on a heavy diet of pull-up jumpers and 3-pointers? Of course. Will he? We’re about to find out. 

2. Which team is actually deeper?

The depth in this series is off the charts. Both teams can easily go 10 deep. The Thunder are so loaded that Aaron Wiggins, who would start for a lot of NBA teams, wasn’t even in the rotation against the Lakers. Isaiah Joe only played seven minutes in the clincher, but if this thing turns into a 3-point contest as OKC struggles to score in the paint against Wemby, he would be a major swing player. 

Look at it through the lens of non-star minutes. Through eight playoff games, the Thunder have won SGA’s 105 bench minutes by 59 points with a better offensive rating. Thank you, Ajay Mitchell. The Spurs, meanwhile, destroyed the Blazers and Wolves in Wemby’s minutes and stayed at +3 per game in his absences.

There’s a case to be made that Dylan Harper and the aforementioned Mitchell should both be starting in this series. I doubt the Spurs go to that, at least not right away, but will the Thunder move Mitchell back to the bench with Jalen Williams set to return? Either way, that’s a stud sixth man, and the balanced production continues from there. 

So far in these playoffs, the Spurs have six players averaging double-digits while the Thunder basically have five (Isaiah Hartenstein is at 9.9, while Williams has only played two games but we can certainly count him as a high-end scorer). 

I have more questions about OKC’s top four scorers than I do San Antonio’s; Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper are rock solid, but Holmgren, as mentioned above, has struggled against Wemby this season, and Williams is coming back after a long injury absence. 

Plus, the Thunder might be a little too dependent on Mitchell as a star-level scorer at this point. The hope is that Holmgren and Williams can lighten that load, but if not, the Spurs don’t need quite that much from Harper, who can dominate more in stretches and as a non-scoring contributor (offensive rebounds and tough defense, notably). I think Harper is a bit better than Mitchell at this point, all things considered, and I give San Antonio’s depth, particularly on the perimeter (which is important, because Wembanyama alone accounts for Holmgren and Hartenstein), a slight nod as well. 

3. Who wins a 3-point contest?

On paper, it looks like this could be more of a 3-point series than either of these teams (who average north of 100 combined paint points per game in the playoffs) would be playing. The formula would be the Thunder not being able to finish in the paint on account of Wembanyama’s presence, and the Spurs not being able to get there, at least not consistently, in the first place against OKC’s stable of perimeter defensive horses (and then, even if they do, Holmgren would arguably be the world’s best rim protector if Wemby didn’t exist). 

That said, Castle, in particular, had a lot of success bullying his way to interior buckets against the Thunder this season (he’s a young Jimmy Butler is so many ways). He’s probably San Antonio’s No. 2 guy at this point, and even if he’s forced more outside he’s making 44% of his almost five 3-pointers per game so far in these playoffs. 

He’s key on the other end as well, and he’ll draw the main SGA assignment. Having to go through Castle just to get to Wembanyama, with San Antonio’s wings sucking down to cut off penetration even more, is a recipe for lots of kick-out 3s. Can Lu Dort make enough of them? Alex Caruso? These will be the guys San Antonio will be looking to leave. 

Let’s say both teams have to take and make more 3s than they’re accustomed to. They’re both shooting an exact 38.4% clip in the playoffs so far. It’s yet another part of this incredibly even matchup that feels almost too close to call. 

4. Can the Spurs survive OKC’s physicality?

This is perhaps the factor in this series. San Antonio is super physical, too, but OKC mauls you, and they’re going to get away with a lot of it; the Spurs have to accept this and find ways to produce through it. Wemby cannot get into foul trouble as the Thunder are going to test his patience. 

There are two ways to look at OKC’s physicality. It could be a shock to the Spurs initially, but as the series goes along they’ll adapt, or they’ll be ready for it, but over time it will wear them down. Either way, this is a huge challenge for a young team that, outside of Harrison Barnes (who isn’t even a big part of the rotation), is about to experience a level of deep-playoff force that they’ve never felt before. 

This is OKC’s biggest edge. Across all 48 minutes they can put five guys on the court who can beat you up and turn you over without a single weak link to attack. OKC leads the playoffs with 22.9 PPG off turnovers, and the Spurs are going to have to find a way to be secure with the ball through all that pressure. 

5. Which Chet Holmgren will show up?

I touched on this earlier, but Holmgren struggled mightily against Wembanyama and the Spurs this season. It was a big reason why San Antonio took four of the five matchups, which I don’t put too much weight on, but it can’t be discounted entering this series. The Spurs know they can beat the Thunder. That’s half the battle. 

OKC’s equation changes quite a bit if Holmgren emerges as a legit No. 2 scorer to take some weight off of Mitchell and Williams having to do that. He’s averaging 18.6 PPG on 60/39/88 shooting splits so far, but it’s not the Lakers, against whom he averaged 20 with a big 24 and 12 showing in the clincher, on the other side. 

Holmgren takes this Wemby matchup personal. Everyone knows that. He tried to do too much in their regular-season matchups, hunting his own buckets outside the offense. It’s a fine line. He has to be aggressive, but it can’t be at the cost of his efficiency or OKC’s overall half-court rhythm. If he gets badly outplayed by Wemby, it’s trouble for OKC.