What’s next for Warriors? Giannis trade among paths to contention with Curry era fading

In December, Steve Kerr called the Golden State Warriors a “fading dynasty.” It was an honest assessment of a struggling team, and it was evident to pretty much everyone watching. And yet, according to The Athletic’s Nick Friedell, the comments “created internal frustration” within the organization.

Even when teams know the end is near, few like to admit it — to the public, of course, or even to themselves. Think of all of the desperation moves the Milwaukee Bucks have made to try to appease Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Stephen Curry-era Warriors have had a whole lot more success, and it’s only natural to want to cling to that. But Kerr said (and reiterated Wednesday) what we were all thinking: it’s not 2017 anymore, or even 2022. This team is in a different phase of its life cycle. And on Friday in the Play-In Tournament, the Warriors’ season ended with a 111-96 loss to the Phoenix Suns, one victory short of the actual playoffs.

This isn’t the first time the Warriors have found themselves in this scenario. The Memphis Grizzlies knocked them out in this exact Play-In game in 2021. They won the championship in 2022. The Sacramento Kings beat them by 24 in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 Play-In Game in 2024. The Warriors staved off that crisis with a timely trade for Jimmy Butler. He tore his ACL in January. Moses Moody tore his patellar tendon two months later. He was the last remnant of Golden State’s ill-fated “two timelines” approach. This roster is now mostly devoid of useful youth. Curry, a 38-year-old who makes his living running laps around the court, missed 27 games while hampered by runner’s knee, an overuse injury.

The Warriors have faced their own mortality before. Father Time will eventually get them, like he does everyone else. But Golden State’s refusal to go quietly into the dark extends far beyond frustration with Kerr’s public quotes. The Warriors have aggressively sought out star-level talent at nearly every major transaction cycle of the past several years. They’ve paid the luxury tax in eight of the past nine seasons, including this year. 

Kerr may believe the Warriors are near the end. And the Warriors seem hellbent on delaying the inevitable as long as possible, or at least trying to go out in a short-term blaze of glory.

Maybe the Warriors are fixable. Maybe they aren’t. But with their offseason now at hand, let’s look at the paths they could take to try to preserve the most successful era in franchise history — or prepare for the next one.

Path 1: Go all-in for Giannis (or someone similar)

The easiest way to maximize the end of Curry’s career would be to pair him with someone better than him. Get another true superstar and you can dial back his workload enough to hopefully keep him fresh through 82 games. We know who Golden State wants this co-star to be: Giannis Antetokounmpo. They offered four first-round picks at the deadline and were rebuffed.

Several things have changed since then. Golden State’s assets are suddenly a bit more appealing. They were in the middle of the Western Conference when they tried for Antetokounmpo in February. Now they’ll go into the lottery with the 11th-best odds at the No. 1 pick — the same slot Dallas won from a year ago. Worst-case scenario, the Warriors are starting from the lottery, not the 20s. Their 2033 first-rounder is suddenly tradable, though Golden State would have to do some gymnastics to unlock its full slate of draft picks thanks to that awkward top-20 protected pick in 2030 that currently belongs to Dallas. That’s a solvable problem consider how limited that pick’s upside is. A 2026 lottery pick, plus four future picks and multiple swaps in a flattened lottery environment, is a fairly substantial offer.

The Bucks don’t seem as willing to kick the can down the road again as they did in February. Governor Wes Edens has said on the record that Antetokounmpo’s deal will be extended or he will be traded. Golden State will be among the bidders, but Antetokounmpo could extend, or another team could offer more, or Antetokounmpo himself could even nudge the Warriors off the scent. He’s only 31 and will likely play years after Curry retires. Does he want to go to a team that old with no assets left to build with? All told, an Antetokounmpo trade is less than a 50-50 proposition for Golden State. Perhaps far less.

And then of course, it’s worth asking whether such a deal would even make sense. Imagine a best-case scenario in which a trade could be made using the expiring contract of Butler, all of the picks and all of their notable youth (Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard). Your four best players would be Curry in his age-38 season, Draymond Green in his age-36 season, Antetokounmpo in his age-32 season, and, assuming he is re-signed, the perpetually unavailable Kristaps Porziņģis in his age-31 season. They’d have minimal remaining cap flexibility to add depth, which seems pretty vital to a group this old. Maybe Curry could lighten Antetokounmpo’s load… but given his age and the injuries he dealt with this season… might he be the one who needs to be paired with a younger star who can make his life easier? 

The risk here seems to outweigh the reward, and that’s before addressing the clunky offensive fit between Antetokounmpo and Green.

So this raises another question. Let’s say the Warriors go into the offseason market prepared to offer their full complement of picks and swaps to any team with a healthy, in-his-prime star. These are players who otherwise likely wouldn’t be available, but whose teams might have to listen at such a price point. Antetokounmpo is really the only player on the market who’s worth Golden State’s full draft package. 

There are a handful of other players who might circumstantially warrant such an investment, but that depends more on how their postseasons play out than Golden State’s eagerness to trade for them. But if Giannis is out, are there any other names worth exploring? I’ll throw out a handful…

Paolo Banchero

Is Orlando pessimistic enough about the Paolo Banchero-Franz Wagner fit that it would allow Golden State to refill its pick coffers following the Desmond Bane trade? He’s another tricky fit next to Green, but his salary is lower than Antetokounmpo’s. Golden State could theoretically construct a deal with Green and Moody as the primary matching salary, while either flipping Butler separately or holding him and hoping he could return mid-season. 

The primary appeal for Banchero, aside from his scoring upside, is his age. He’s only 23. He could take the torch from Curry and lead Golden State into its next era. Let’s see how the first round goes. His first Play-In game was a disaster, but his second was far stronger. The Magic will probably try a coaching change before a trade, but it’s worth the call.

Donovan Mitchell

How badly would the playoffs have to go for the Cleveland Cavaliers to consider a monster offer for Donovan Mitchell? Remember, he’s a 2027 free agent, and The Athletic’s Fred Katz reported that if he does not extend, Cleveland will consider trading him. It’s far likelier that the Cavaliers operate as buyers rather than sellers this offseason, but at this price point, it’s worth at least stepping back and considering if retooling around Evan Mobley’s timeline might make more sense.

Devin Booker

I wouldn’t necessarily advise trading for Devin Booker and his unwieldy contract, nor do I consider the Phoenix Suns the most rational actors here. They’d be getting worse in the short term, but would unquestionably be increasing their long-term championship equity if they could nab all of Golden State’s picks. Phoenix seems content just being competitive, but this would be a hard offer to say no to, especially with Booker’s productivity quietly starting to decline.

Path No. 2: Chase a flawed star (Kawhi?), maintain flexibility

What this offseason lacks in safe bets, it more than makes up for in feasible risks. Let’s say the Warriors tone their offer down from five picks and all of the swaps to a couple of picks and perhaps a single swap. Suddenly, the menu gets a whole lot bigger.

We know the Warriors tried for Kawhi Leonard at the deadline. Given the timing and the uncertainty of the Aspiration investigation, such a deal would have been impractical at the time. We still don’t know what the NBA will find or when the investigation will conclude, but if Leonard’s contract is not voided, it seems a safe bet that the Clippers will shop him. They just traded two of their three best players, James Harden and Ivica Zubac, in forward-looking deals. Leonard is 34 and unlikely to have another season this healthy. This is the absolute peak of his value, and as the Clippers learned when they traded their future for Paul George, it’s always nice to trade with a desperate buyer. The Warriors and Clippers will almost certainly resume talks in some fashion.

Leonard still has a First-Team All-NBA ceiling. He’d fit well into Golden State’s movement system for many of the same reasons Kevin Durant did: he’s relatively low-maintenance within the flow of an offense and can get you hard, isolation buckets when needed. He’s not the defender he used to be, but he’s still quite good. If he has to leave Los Angeles, you’d think he’d be more amenable to the Bay Area than, say, the Midwest or the Northeast. This is ultimately a question of price point. The Warriors could justify a single pick — maybe even this year’s lottery pick if it doesn’t jump — for Leonard. What they can’t do is fully encumber their future for such a big injury risk.

Leonard is the first name on this list. Let’s jump around to a few others, ranging from most to least realistic.

Zion Williamson

The New Orleans Pelicans say they aren’t trading Zion Williamson. Is that true, or are they angling for negotiating position? Whether or not the Pelicans see it, Williamson and Derik Queen seem pretty incompatible. New Orleans was outscored by 12.9 points per 100 possessions when the two shared the floor last season. Williamson has never enjoyed the sort of spacing he’d have with Golden State. He’s coming off his healthiest season, though he doesn’t look quite as explosive as he did at his peak. This is the high-risk, high-reward long-term play. Get it right and Williamson could be the next face of the franchise.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Even if the Warriors don’t get Antetokounmpo themselves, they could sneak into the trade Milwaukee ultimately makes. Say Antetokounmpo makes it clear that he only wants to play for the New York Knicks. The Bucks likely wouldn’t want Karl-Anthony Towns on a multi-year deal, but could the Warriors swoop in and grab him for a pittance? He and Porziņģis are such great shooters that the Warriors could stomach Green’s issues on that front, and Green would be the most versatile defender Towns ever played with.

Joel Embiid

Would Philadelphia offer Joel Embiid straight up for Butler’s expiring contract? They would essentially be giving up the chance at an All-NBA player — and Embiid genuinely was that good when healthy — to offload the risk of the two extra years Embiid has on his deal compared to Butler. Porziņģis already functions somewhat similarly within Golden State’s ecosystem as a high-upside but often unavailable center who creates his own points, but Embiid is simply a different class of player. Is the potentially catastrophic injury risk a fair tradeoff for this level of upside without having to give up a mountain of picks? It made more sense before Porziņģis, but I wouldn’t take it completely off the table now.

The key here: Invest around Curry without jeopardizing the future

This is a middle ground: a way for the Warriors to show Curry that they’re still willing to invest in him, but without doing so in a way that would bankrupt the post-Curry era. It would also leave the Warriors open for further moves. If they could make the money work — though it would cost basically all of their non-Curry salary — perhaps they could trade for multiple players of this ilk. 

Maybe they preserve picks until the deadline, see what else they need and decide at that point whether it makes sense to make further investments into potential role players. 

Or maybe this is a move made in conjunction with another, much more prominent upgrade…

Path No. 3: Go get LeBron James

LeBron James is willing to come for the minimum? Great. Where do we sign up? It might be that simple. We don’t know what James wants out of the end of his career. 

The Los Angeles Lakers have the obvious advantage financially. They’ll have full Bird Rights and mostly clean cap space. The Warriors, as it stands now, might have the capacity to offer the full mid-level exception, but that will mean clearing some money. Maybe Al Horford retires. Maybe you find a taker for Moody’s deal. Maybe Porziņģis agrees to a pretty drastic salary reduction — taking his cap number from around $30 million this year to the mid-level range next year — in exchange for long-term security. 

Don’t sleep on Green considering this, either. He has a player option, and he’s said that his preferred path this offseason is to decline it and extend. He’d probably be open to lowering his cap figure to help fit a James-caliber addition if it also meant another year or two of guaranteed money.

But with Curry and Butler on max deals and Green presumably returning at some price point, there’s not a realistic path to clearing out major cap space. If James wants every last dollar, the Lakers have the advantage.

Cleveland has a different set of advantages. It’s home for James, and it has a better team for him than Golden State would. The Knicks offer the allure of potentially breaking a 50-year title drought. But if this is about a different sort of sentiment for James — playing with old foes and going out with his contemporaries — the Warriors hold obvious appeal. Nobody needs to be sold on the basketball fit. Golden State’s offense is about quick decision-making and smart movement. Aside from the fact that we’re talking about one of the smartest basketball players ever, James settled into a pretty similar role with the Lakers before they were decimated by injury.

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Brad Botkin

The appeal of James, aside from the fact that it’s LeBron James, is that he would carry no asset cost. He’s a free agent. If he’s willing to sign for the minimum or mid-level, all of those pre-existing assets remain. You could sign James and pursue an Antetokounmpo trade or a Leonard trade. You could bring him in, assume he’s replacing Butler in the team’s overall structure, and then plan to flip his salary with some picks for a few role players that fit alongside him. James offers the most optionality. Even at 41, he’s still a borderline All-Star-caliber player acquirable at a role player’s price —  at least in a literal sense. 

There’s almost always a different sort of cost associated with having LeBron on your team. He’s spent years campaigning for the Lakers to spend draft picks in trades. His teams tend to deplete their asset stocks in the name of winning with him and then are left barren after he’s gone. As a free agent, James could more literally dictate terms. If he’s going to make the financial sacrifice it would take for Golden State to sign him, he would be justified in demanding a certain level of pick investment as true compensation. For all we know, he could tell the Warriors he’d only take the minimum if they find a way to add another superstar.

James himself is valuable enough that he might even tilt the equation of whether it makes sense to trade for another player. If the Clippers are demanding that extra pick for Leonard, for instance, knowing he comes with James attached might push a trade over the top. But whether or not he’s gettable is ultimately his decision. The Warriors can and should bring him in if he wants to play for them. They can’t just rely on getting him. There’s only one path here that’s fully in their control.

Path No. 4: Accept defeat

Let’s get this out of the way: the Warriors can’t trade Stephen Curry unless he asks them to. It’s somewhat ironic because Curry asked for a no-trade clause in prior contract negotiations but never officially got one. However, he doesn’t need contractual language to protect him from a trade. Warriors fans would riot if he were traded without his blessing. 

A trade might be in Golden State’s best interest. Even now, Curry would command a hefty price, and moving him would remove the burden of expectations that come with him. The Warriors wouldn’t have to worry about irresponsible, short-term decisions for his sake. But it’s not going to happen. He’d have to ask, and it certainly doesn’t seem like he plans to do so.

But there are more than two options here. It’s not “tank” or “all-in.” The Warriors, in their current state, are a Play-In team. Their best players are all on the wrong side of the traditional aging curve. None of the top six teams in the Western Conference are likely to seriously decline next season, and even if they do (or, more likely, suffer season-altering injuries), there are younger, deeper teams like the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers in a better immediate position to replace them. You can augment a fading dynasty, but you can’t turn back time. 

A team with some combination of Curry, Green, Butler and Porziņģis at their current ages might just have a ceiling below “capable of winning an NBA championship,” and the Warriors, justifiably, may determine that sacrificing resources that might later be used in pursuit of a championship isn’t worthwhile for an immediate, sub-championship ceiling. 

The cold, logical solution to that dilemma, if tanking isn’t an option, is to do nothing of consequence.

The Warriors will pick somewhere between No. 1 and No. 14. Maybe they get a young star. Worst-case scenario, they get a valuable young prospect. The lottery odds are presumably about to flatten. It might be more beneficial to be in the Play-In Tournament next year than it is now anyway. You don’t have to evict Curry to start planning for life without him. He and Green are surely welcome as long as they plan to keep playing. But that doesn’t mean the Warriors have any obligation to prioritize their timelines anymore.

The genius of the Porziņģis trade was that it nominally did so without any significant investment. He’s a former All-Star who fits their needs and only cost a player (Jonathan Kuminga) they weren’t going to keep long-term anyway. You can pay lip service to winning now without actually depriving the future. That should probably be the approach here. Don’t tear the team down. Allow Curry and Green to go out with some dignity. Use a mid-level exception. Keep Porziņģis. Work around the fringes, see if you can find respectable veterans at reasonable prices and let this thing peter out organically.

This isn’t going to be Golden State’s first choice. It might not be Golden State’s fifth choice if its prior aggression is any indication. But it’s what responsible team-building looks like if there isn’t a path to genuine championship contention. The Warriors will explore every remotely possible path to that sort of contention, but if it’s not there, there’s no need to force it. 

All dynasties eventually fade away completely, but they don’t have to take the next generation out with them.