Why Braves’ hot start could be real — especially as the rest of the NL East stumbles

Four weeks into the new season, the best team in baseball is, well, the Dodgers. That’s not a surprise. The two-time defending World Series champions have baseball’s best record at 16-6. Right behind the Dodgers at 16-7 are the Braves, who missed the postseason a year ago and were one of the sport’s biggest disappointments. This year, they’re one of MLB’s strongest teams and are currently on a six-game winning streak.

In addition to their strong record, the Braves have the Dodgers and every other team beat in run differential:

1. Braves: +62
2. Dodgers: +57
3. Cubs: +34
4. Yankees: +28
5. Pirates: +24

The Braves are 1-2 in one-run games and you know what? That’s the sign of a good team. The Braves are not 16-7 because they’re winning close games. They’re blowing teams out on the regular (8-2 in games decided by five-plus runs), and they were one swing away in a few of their losses. This isn’t one of those fluky good starts we often see in April.

Here are four reasons to believe the Braves can keep this up, bounce back from the disappointment that was 2025, and return to the postseason.

1. The offense is what it’s supposed to be

Pitching more than anything sunk the Braves last season. At one point, their entire five-man Opening Day rotation was on the injured list. The Braves finished 22nd in ERA (4.36) and 23rd in pitching WAR (11.4). They used 19 different starting pitchers, the most in baseball, and set a franchise record with 46 pitchers used. The previous record was 37 pitchers in 2015, so, yeah.

Don’t let the offense off the hook though. What consistently ranked as one of the game’s best offenses from 2021-24 was instead middle of the pack in 2025. The Braves were 13th in runs (724), 14th in home runs (190), and 15th in position player WAR (19.2). The pitching was below average a year ago, yes, but the offense was decidedly mediocre as well.

This year, though, Atlanta’s offense is back to being one of the best in the game. Every Braves regular except Mike Yastrzemski has at least a 100 OPS+ and six of their regulars have at least a 120 OPS+. Set the minimum to 50 plate appearances and no other team has more than five players with a 120 OPS+. Here are Atlanta’s offensive ranks:

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball and the Braves aren’t too far behind them. The output is great and, encouragingly, the underlying numbers are terrific. The Braves have the third-highest 90th percentile exit velocity in baseball and the third-best barrel rate, two Statcast metrics that better project offense moving forward than regular old average exit velocity.

To put it another way, the Braves hit the ball about as hard as any team in baseball, specifically in the air (barrel rate tells us this). They combine that hard-hit ability with the third-lowest strikeout rate in the game. The Braves aren’t just making a ton of contact. They’re making a ton of loud contact. It’s the best possible offense: few strikeouts, lots of power.

2. The bullpen is dominant

That back of the bullpen took a hit Tuesday when the Braves placed closer Raisel Iglesias on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, retroactive to Monday. The injury is believed to be minor — manager Walt Weiss chalked it up to Iglesias sleeping wrong over the weekend — but the Braves will be without their closer until at least May 5.

No matter, Atlanta has a more than capable fill-in closer: Robert Suarez. The two-time All-Star has allowed one run in 9 ⅔ innings as Iglesias’ setup man this year. He’s struck out 11 and walked one. The middle-innings crew has been excellent as well. Righty Tyler Kinley and lefty Dylan Lee have each allowed just one run in 10 innings in the early going this year.

Atlanta’s bullpen ranks second with a 2.61 ERA and third with 1.3 WAR. They’re also sixth in win probability added (plus-1.12) and have the fifth-fewest “meltdowns,” which are relief appearances that lower the team’s win probability at least 6%. The Braves are a perfect 11-0 when leading after five innings this season because their bullpen rarely blows up. 

Relievers are notoriously fickle and not having Iglesias for at least the next two weeks will test their depth, for sure, but the Braves are as good as any team in the late innings. Iglesias and Suarez have long track records and so does Lee, who’s quietly been one of the game’s most reliable lefty relievers the last few years. This bullpen is built to protect leads and slam the door.

3. They have help on the way

The Braves currently have 10 players on the injured list, several of whom won’t return anytime soon. That includes starters Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep, who had surgery to remove bone spurs from their elbows in spring training. They’re both months away, not weeks. Ditto setup man Joe Jiménez, who’s recovering from knee surgery.

There is help coming fairly soon though. Spencer Strider (oblique) will make his second minor-league rehab start on Tuesday. Behind the plate will be Sean Murphy (hip surgery), who has four rehab games under his belt. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (torn finger ligament) will hit in a simulated game later this week and could begin a rehab assignment soon thereafter.

Murphy and Strider are ahead of Kim and are expected back the first week of May or thereabouts. Murphy hasn’t been great over the last few years, but Drake Baldwin is the starting catcher now anyway. The veteran is a depth upgrade. Strider had a down 2025, but how much longer do you want to count on Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, and Martín Pérez pitching to sub-2.25 ERAs?

The Braves got hammered by rotation injuries in spring training (Schwellenbach, Strider, Waldrep), making it rather remarkable that they currently lead baseball in starting pitcher ERA (2.72). The underlying numbers (4.06 FIP and 3.35 xERA) aren’t quite as good, so Strider should give the team a nice lift once Elder, López, and Pérez begin to return to Earth.

Counting on players to return from injury to make an impact is dicey but you’d rather be at full strength than not, and the Braves have not been anywhere close to full strength this season. Kim and Strider in particular could really boost Atlanta’s roster and make them even more formidable than it has been to date.

4. The rest of the NL East isn’t as good as we thought

The Mets are a complete mess. The Phillies have lost six straight and are looking long in the tooth. The Marlins are improved and are an arrow-up team, but they’re probably not ready to contend for a division title yet. The Nationals are early in their latest rebuild. The path is there for the Braves to win the NL East and also secure a Wild Card Series bye.

NL East standings on April 21
1. Braves: 16-7
2. Marlins: 11-12 (5 GB)
3. Nationals: 10-13 (6 GB)
4. Phillies: 8-14 (7 ½ GB)
5. Mets: 7-15 (8 ½ GB)

No other team leads their division by more than 1 ½ games in the early going. These Braves’ wins and Mets’ and Phillies’ losses are in the bank and have meaningfully improved Atlanta’s NL East title hopes. Per FanGraphs, the Braves were at 36.0% to win the division and 29.3% to get a bye on Opening Day. Those odds are now 73.9% and 52.7%, respectively. Caesars has Atlanta at -175 to win the division and -400 to make the playoffs.

It is a long season. A very long season. The Mets were 45-24 last June 12 and managed to miss the postseason. The Braves have started well and improved their NL East chances, but there’s a long way to go. I still have questions about some of the guys in their rotation too. For now though, the Braves are piling up wins and the rest of the division isn’t. That makes for a great April.